Valladolid
vs
Castellón
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Valladolid 0–1 Castellón
The model makes it 25% Valladolid, 27% draw, 48% Castellón — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Valladolid 1.04, Castellón 1.65.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
One-sided: Castellón are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Valladolid's rating is built from 53 Segunda División matches and Castellón's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,057 matches.
Key facts
- Valladolid are 15th on 12 points from 11 games; Castellón are top on 26 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Valladolid have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Granada CF.
- Castellón have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Sporting Gijon.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Valladolid 0–4 Castellón.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Valladolid vs Castellón
Has the model earned this number?
Castellón at 48%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Valladolid vs Castellón
Valladolid
Segunda División
- L1-2away to Granada CF23 October 2026
- L2-3Eldense18 October 2026
- W5-0Albacete12 October 2026
- D2-2away to Las Palmas4 October 2026
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
Castellón
Segunda División
- W4-0Sporting Gijon25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Las Palmas17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026
- D1-1AD Ceuta FC4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Leganes28 September 2026
What these results say
- Valladolid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12 |
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Castellón
- 8 February 2026Valladolid 0–4 CastellónSegunda División
- 22 August 2025Castellón 0–1 ValladolidSegunda División
Leading scorers: Valladolid and Castellón
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio41
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero52
- Ousmane Camara41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Valladolid carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.8 for Castellón.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Valladolid and 1.65 for Castellón.
Valladolid rate 0.67 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Castellón rate 0.91 and 1.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Valladolid a 0% chance of the title and Castellón 49.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Valladolid against 1.65 for Castellón. Valladolid's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1 for Castellón.
How the model reaches 48% for Castellón to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Castellón to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Valladolid's ratings add 9 points and Castellón's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Valladolid's ratings39%+9
- Castellón's ratings48%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Valladolid at home · Castellón away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ValladolidCastellón
Valladolid are 15th after 11 Segunda División matches (between 9th and 21st so far); Castellón are 1st after 11 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Valladolid 11, Castellón 11.
Castellón score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Valladolid have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Valladolid
- at Celta de Vigo II22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
- vs Real Sociedad II29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
- at Girona6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
Castellón
- vs Eldense22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 60%
- at Mallorca29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Almeria6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.