Dijon
vs
Orleans
Coupe de France prediction
Our model says: Dijon 2–1 Orleans
The model makes it 70% Dijon, 17% draw, 13% Orleans — fair odds of 1.43, 5.88 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Dijon 2.97, Orleans 1.06.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
One-sided: Dijon are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Dijon's rating is built from 11 Ligue 2 matches and Orleans's from 42 Ligue 3 matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Dijon are 8th in Ligue 2 on 15 points from 11 games; Orleans are 15th in Ligue 3 on 9 points from 10 games.
- Dijon have won 3 of their last 5 Ligue 2 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Grenoble.
- Orleans have not won in their last 5 Ligue 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Quevilly.
- Last 6 meetings: Dijon 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 May 2026, ended Dijon 3–2 Orleans.
More Coupe de France predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dijon vs Orleans
Has the model earned this number?
Dijon at 70%: of 415 settled 65–100% forecasts, 66.0% came in (average 73.3%). Read it as optimistic. The full record.
Form going into Dijon vs Orleans
Dijon
Ligue 2
- W3-1away to Grenoble30 October 2026
- L1-2Rodez24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Reims16 October 2026
- W4-2Metz12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Annecy18 September 2026
Orleans
Ligue 3
- L2-3away to Quevilly17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bastia1 October 2026
- D0-0Cannes26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Amiens19 September 2026
- L0-4Versailles12 September 2026
What these results say
- Dijon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dijon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dijon had three goals or more.
- Orleans did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orleans conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dijon vs Orleans
- 15 May 2026Dijon 3–2 OrleansLigue 3
- 8 August 2025Orleans 1–2 DijonLigue 3
- 7 March 2025Dijon 2–2 OrleansLigue 3
- 4 October 2024Orleans 1–1 DijonLigue 3
- 12 April 2024Dijon 1–0 OrleansLigue 3
- 10 November 2023Orleans 1–2 DijonLigue 3
Leading scorers: Dijon and Orleans
Dijon
GoalsAssists
- Júlio Tavares51
Orleans
No player in Ligue 3's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dijon the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.97 expected goals for Dijon against 1.06 for Orleans. Dijon's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.1 for Orleans.
How the model reaches 70% for Dijon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dijon to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Dijon's ratings add 13 points and Orleans's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level47%+3
- Dijon's ratings60%+13
- Orleans's ratings70%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dijon at home · Orleans away
League matches only, this season — Dijon in the Ligue 2, Orleans in the Ligue 3; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Dijon 11 in the Ligue 2, Orleans 10 in the Ligue 3.
Dijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Orleans have let in 5 there.
Orleans score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Dijon have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dijon
- at Nancy20 Nov · Ligue 2win 34%
- vs Sochaux4 Dec · Ligue 2win 51%
- at Guingamp11 Dec · Ligue 2win 39%
- vs Nantes2 Jan · Ligue 2win 53%
- vs Dunkerque15 Jan · Ligue 2win 47%
Orleans
- vs Thionville Lusitanos23 Nov · Ligue 3win 44%
- at Aubagne5 Dec · Ligue 3win 35%
- vs Caen10 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
- at Bourg-en-bresse 0116 Jan · Ligue 3win 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.