Burgos
vs
Castellón
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Burgos 0–1 Castellón
The model makes it 33% Burgos, 32% draw, 35% Castellón — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Burgos 0.99, Castellón 1.04.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Burgos and Castellón are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Burgos are 8th on 14 points from 9 games; Castellón are 2nd on 23 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Burgos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Granada CF.
- Castellón have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Las Palmas.
- Last 4 meetings: Castellón 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Castellón 3–1 Burgos.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Burgos vs Castellón
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 35% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Burgos vs Castellón
Burgos
- L0-1Granada CF12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Almeria3 October 2026
- W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
Castellón
- W3-0away to Las Palmas17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026
- D1-1AD Ceuta FC4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Leganes28 September 2026
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
What these results say
- Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Castellón
- 18 April 2026Castellón 3–1 BurgosSegunda División
- 10 November 2025Burgos 0–0 CastellónSegunda División
- 1 March 2025Castellón 2–1 BurgosSegunda División
- 1 September 2024Burgos 0–2 CastellónSegunda División
Leading scorers: Burgos and Castellón
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés31
- David González31
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero42
- Ousmane Camara41
- Pablo Santiago32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Burgos carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.76 for Castellón. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Burgos and 1.04 for Castellón. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burgos rate 0.62 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Castellón rate 0.86 and 1.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burgos a 0.8% chance of the title and Castellón 25%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Burgos against 1.04 for Castellón. Burgos's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.04 for Castellón.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Burgos at home · Castellón away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BurgosCastellón
Burgos are 8th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Castellón are 2nd after 10 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Burgos 9, Castellón 10.
Castellón score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Burgos have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Burgos
- vs Celta de Vigo II8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Leganes15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- vs Albacete22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 54%
Castellón
- vs Eibar8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
- at Valladolid15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- vs Eldense22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 54%
- at Mallorca29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.