Dunkerque
vs
Quevilly
Coupe de France prediction
Our model says: Dunkerque 2–0 Quevilly
The model makes it 62% Dunkerque, 21% draw, 17% Quevilly — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Dunkerque 2.35, Quevilly 0.98.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Edge to Dunkerque: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Dunkerque's rating is built from 45 Ligue 2 matches and Quevilly's from 42 Ligue 3 matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Dunkerque are 11th in Ligue 2 on 12 points from 11 games; Quevilly are 12th in Ligue 3 on 13 points from 10 games.
- Dunkerque have won 1 of their last 5 Ligue 2 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Rodez.
- Quevilly have won 2 of their last 5 Ligue 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Orleans.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2024, ended Quevilly 1–2 Dunkerque.
More Coupe de France predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dunkerque vs Quevilly
Has the model earned this number?
Dunkerque at 62%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dunkerque vs Quevilly
Dunkerque
Ligue 2
- L0-1away to Rodez30 October 2026
- D1-1Metz23 October 2026
- W3-2away to Nantes17 October 2026
- L0-1Annecy9 October 2026
- L0-2away to PAU18 September 2026
Quevilly
Ligue 3
- W3-2Orleans17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cannes3 October 2026
- D1-1Amiens26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Versailles19 September 2026
- W2-1Le Puy Foot12 September 2026
What these results say
- Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunkerque failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dunkerque had two goals or fewer.
- Quevilly scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Quevilly conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Quevilly.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Quevilly
- 3 May 2024Quevilly 1–2 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 30 September 2023Dunkerque 0–1 QuevillyLigue 2
- 14 May 2022Quevilly 3–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 24 July 2021Dunkerque 1–1 QuevillyLigue 2
- 31 July 2020Dunkerque 2–2 QuevillyFriendlies Clubs
- 10 January 2020Dunkerque 3–2 QuevillyLigue 3
Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Quevilly
Dunkerque
GoalsAssists
- E. Prutsev31
Quevilly
No player in Ligue 3's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunkerque the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Dunkerque against 0.98 for Quevilly. Dunkerque's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.16 for Quevilly.
How the model reaches 62% for Dunkerque to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dunkerque to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Dunkerque's ratings add 9 points and Quevilly's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Dunkerque's ratings54%+9
- Quevilly's ratings62%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dunkerque at home · Quevilly away
League matches only, this season — Dunkerque in the Ligue 2, Quevilly in the Ligue 3; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Dunkerque 11 in the Ligue 2, Quevilly 10 in the Ligue 3.
Dunkerque score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Quevilly have let in 4 there.
Quevilly score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Dunkerque have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dunkerque
- at Sochaux20 Nov · Ligue 2win 36%
- vs RED Star FC 934 Dec · Ligue 2win 38%
- at Laval11 Dec · Ligue 2win 38%
- vs Boulogne2 Jan · Ligue 2win 42%
- at Dijon15 Jan · Ligue 2win 29%
Quevilly
- vs Valenciennes21 Nov · Ligue 3win 48%
- at Thionville Lusitanos5 Dec · Ligue 3win 28%
- vs Aubagne12 Dec · Ligue 3win 51%
- at Caen16 Jan · Ligue 3win 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.