Albacete
vs
Sabadell
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Albacete 0–1 Sabadell
The model makes it 26% Albacete, 30% draw, 44% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.85, 3.33 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Albacete 0.89, Sabadell 1.32.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Sabadell are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Albacete are bottom on 1 point from 10 games; Sabadell are 6th on 16 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Albacete have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sporting Gijon.
- Sabadell are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to AD Ceuta FC.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2022, ended Sabadell 1–0 Albacete.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Albacete vs Sabadell
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabadell at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Albacete vs Sabadell
Albacete
- L1-2away to Sporting Gijon17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Valladolid12 October 2026
- L1-3Eibar3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Girona25 September 2026
- L1-2Cordoba18 September 2026
Sabadell
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026
- D0-0FC Andorra4 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II26 September 2026
- W3-1Oviedo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
What these results say
- Albacete did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Albacete conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Albacete had three goals or more.
- Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 22 | -16 | 1 |
| 6 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Albacete vs Sabadell
- 3 April 2022Sabadell 1–0 AlbacetePrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 16 February 2022Albacete 1–1 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 26 February 2021Sabadell 0–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 17 October 2020Albacete 3–0 SabadellSegunda División
The two sides
Albacete carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.65 for Sabadell. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.89 goals for Albacete and 1.32 for Sabadell. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Albacete rate 0.57 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabadell rate 0.66 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Albacete a 0% chance of the title and Sabadell 2.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabadell the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Albacete against 1.32 for Sabadell. Albacete's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.02 for Sabadell.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Albacete at home · Sabadell away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AlbaceteSabadell
Albacete are 22nd after 10 Segunda División matches (between 18th and 22nd so far); Sabadell are 4th after 9 (between 3rd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Albacete 10, Sabadell 9.
Albacete score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sabadell have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Albacete
- at Leganes8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Celta de Vigo II15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- at Burgos22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 18%
- vs Tenerife29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
Sabadell
- vs Real Sociedad II8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 53%
- at Eldense15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Granada CF22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.