Eibar
vs
Almeria
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Eibar 2–1 Almeria
The model makes it 42% Eibar, 27% draw, 31% Almeria — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Eibar 1.64, Almeria 1.35.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Eibar are 3rd on 22 points from 10 games; Almeria are top on 24 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Eibar have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Mallorca.
- Almeria are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-2 win away to Real Sociedad II.
- Last 6 meetings: Eibar 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Eibar 1–0 Almeria.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Eibar vs Almeria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eibar at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Eibar vs Almeria
Eibar
- D1-1Mallorca17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Oviedo12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026
- W3-2Las Palmas27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Eldense19 September 2026
Almeria
- W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026
- W3-0Leganes11 October 2026
- W2-1Burgos3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mallorca27 September 2026
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
What these results say
- Eibar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eibar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Eibar.
- Almeria won every one of these 5 matches.
- Almeria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Eibar | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 22 |
| 1 | Almeria | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eibar vs Almeria
- 25 January 2026Eibar 1–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 1 November 2025Almeria 3–1 EibarSegunda División
- 7 March 2025Eibar 1–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 22 September 2024Almeria 2–2 EibarSegunda División
- 24 January 2022Almeria 0–2 EibarSegunda División
- 15 October 2021Eibar 1–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eibar and Almeria
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
- Jon Guruzeta32
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente61
- B. Cipenga34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Eibar carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.72 for Almeria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Eibar and 1.35 for Almeria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eibar rate 0.84 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Almeria rate 0.97 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Almeria, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Eibar a 15.1% chance of the title and Almeria 27.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eibar the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Eibar against 1.35 for Almeria. Eibar's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.27 for Almeria.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Eibar at home · Almeria away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
EibarAlmeria
Eibar are 2nd after 10 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 20th so far); Almeria are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Eibar 10, Almeria 10.
Eibar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Almeria have let in 0 there.
Almeria score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Eibar have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Eibar
- at Castellón8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
- vs Cadiz15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 59%
- at Girona22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- vs Burgos29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
Almeria
- at Girona8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- vs FC Andorra15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 55%
- at AD Ceuta FC22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 53%
- vs Sporting Gijon29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.