Real Sociedad II
vs
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Real Sociedad II 2–1 Sporting Gijon
The model makes it 39% Real Sociedad II, 27% draw, 34% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad II 1.52, Sporting Gijon 1.38.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Real Sociedad II's rating is built from 53 Segunda División matches and Sporting Gijon's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,057 matches.
Key facts
- Real Sociedad II are 20th on 8 points from 11 games; Sporting Gijon are 8th on 19 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Real Sociedad II have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Las Palmas.
- Sporting Gijon have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Castellón.
- Last 5 meetings: Real Sociedad II 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Sporting Gijon 1–0 Real Sociedad II.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad II at 39%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División
- L0-1away to Las Palmas24 October 2026
- L2-4Almeria17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Celta de Vigo II10 October 2026
- L2-3Granada CF4 October 2026
- L1-3away to AD Ceuta FC26 September 2026
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División
- L0-4away to Castellón25 October 2026
- W2-1Albacete17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz11 October 2026
- W3-2Celta de Vigo II4 October 2026
- L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Gijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon
- 6 April 2026Sporting Gijon 1–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 6 December 2025Real Sociedad II 0–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 7 March 2022Real Sociedad II 2–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 12 November 2021Sporting Gijon 0–1 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 28 July 2021Sporting Gijon 0–2 Real Sociedad IIFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Sociedad II carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.51 for Sporting Gijon.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Real Sociedad II and 1.38 for Sporting Gijon.
Real Sociedad II rate 0.73 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Gijon rate 0.68 and 1.34.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sporting Gijon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Sociedad II a 0% chance of the title and Sporting Gijon 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad II the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Real Sociedad II against 1.38 for Sporting Gijon. Real Sociedad II's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.34 for Sporting Gijon.
How the model reaches 39% for Real Sociedad II to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Sociedad II to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Real Sociedad II's ratings take away 1 point and Sporting Gijon's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Real Sociedad II's ratings42%−1
- Sporting Gijon's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Real Sociedad II at home · Sporting Gijon away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Real Sociedad IISporting Gijon
Real Sociedad II are 20th after 11 Segunda División matches (between 4th and 22nd so far); Sporting Gijon are 8th after 11 (between 1st and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Real Sociedad II 11, Sporting Gijon 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Real Sociedad II
- vs Cadiz22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
- at Valladolid29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- vs Leganes6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
Sporting Gijon
- vs Las Palmas22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Almeria29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 21%
- vs Granada CF6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.