Celta de Vigo II
vs
Cordoba
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Celta de Vigo II 2–1 Cordoba
The model makes it 51% Celta de Vigo II, 23% draw, 26% Cordoba — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Celta de Vigo II 2.22, Cordoba 1.48.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Celta de Vigo II are 14th on 11 points from 9 games; Cordoba are 13th on 12 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Celta de Vigo II have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Real Sociedad II.
- Cordoba have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Leganes.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 January 2023, ended Cordoba 0–2 Celta de Vigo II.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta de Vigo II at 51% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba
Celta de Vigo II
- W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sporting Gijon4 October 2026
- D1-1Sabadell26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Almeria20 September 2026
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
Cordoba
- W1-0away to Leganes16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Eldense10 October 2026
- W3-2Tenerife5 October 2026
- L1-3away to Valladolid27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Albacete18 September 2026
What these results say
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cordoba had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Cordoba | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba
- 29 January 2023Cordoba 0–2 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 11 September 2022Celta de Vigo II 1–2 CordobaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Cordoba
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin51
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan31
- Eder García31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Celta de Vigo II carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.44 for Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for Celta de Vigo II and 1.48 for Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta de Vigo II rate 0.81 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cordoba rate 0.76 and 1.78.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cordoba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celta de Vigo II a 0.1% chance of the title and Cordoba 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta de Vigo II the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II against 1.48 for Cordoba. Celta de Vigo II's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.78 for Cordoba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celta de Vigo II at home · Cordoba away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Celta de Vigo IICordoba
Celta de Vigo II are 11th after 9 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Cordoba are 13th after 10 (between 8th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Celta de Vigo II 9, Cordoba 10.
Celta de Vigo II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Cordoba have let in 6 there.
Cordoba score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Celta de Vigo II have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Celta de Vigo II
- at Burgos8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- at Albacete15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 41%
- vs Valladolid22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
Cordoba
- vs AD Ceuta FC8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- at Mallorca15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 16%
- vs Oviedo22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
- at Cadiz29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.