Almeria
vs
FC Andorra
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Almeria 2–1 FC Andorra
The model makes it 58% Almeria, 22% draw, 20% FC Andorra — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Almeria 2.32, FC Andorra 1.18.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Edge to Almeria: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Almeria's rating is built from 57 Segunda División matches and FC Andorra's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,057 matches.
Key facts
- Almeria are 2nd on 25 points from 11 games; FC Andorra are 19th on 10 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Almeria are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Oviedo.
- FC Andorra have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Burgos.
- Last 2 meetings: Almeria 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Almeria 3–2 FC Andorra.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Almeria vs FC Andorra
Has the model earned this number?
Almeria at 58%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Almeria vs FC Andorra
Almeria
Segunda División
- D2-2Oviedo24 October 2026
- W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026
- W3-0Leganes11 October 2026
- W2-1Burgos3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mallorca27 September 2026
FC Andorra
Segunda División
- L2-3Burgos26 October 2026
- L0-2away to Girona18 October 2026
- W1-0Castellón11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sabadell4 October 2026
- W3-2away to Granada CF26 September 2026
What these results say
- Almeria went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Almeria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Almeria won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 25 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Almeria vs FC Andorra
- 13 February 2026Almeria 3–2 FC AndorraSegunda División
- 6 December 2025FC Andorra 1–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Almeria and FC Andorra
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente71
- B. Cipenga34
FC Andorra
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Cano52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Almeria carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.49 for FC Andorra.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Almeria and 1.18 for FC Andorra.
Almeria rate 0.96 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Andorra rate 0.76 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almeria a 18.7% chance of the title and FC Andorra 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almeria the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Almeria against 1.18 for FC Andorra. Almeria's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.56 for FC Andorra.
How the model reaches 58% for Almeria to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almeria to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Almeria's ratings add 6 points and FC Andorra's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Almeria's ratings51%+6
- FC Andorra's ratings58%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Almeria at home · FC Andorra away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AlmeriaFC Andorra
Almeria are 2nd after 11 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 11th so far); FC Andorra are 19th after 11 (between 1st and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Almeria 11, FC Andorra 11.
Almeria score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); FC Andorra have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Almeria
- at AD Ceuta FC22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 54%
- vs Sporting Gijon29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 54%
- at Castellón6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
FC Andorra
- vs Leganes22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- at Las Palmas29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
- vs Oviedo6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.