Real Sociedad II
vs
Girona
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Real Sociedad II 1–2 Girona
The model makes it 28% Real Sociedad II, 26% draw, 46% Girona — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad II 1.24, Girona 1.75.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Girona: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Real Sociedad II are 19th on 8 points from 10 games; Girona are 7th on 15 points from 9 games — Segunda División.
- Real Sociedad II have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Almeria.
- Girona are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Tenerife.
- Last 2 meetings: Girona 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2022, ended Girona 2–0 Real Sociedad II.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Real Sociedad II vs Girona
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 46% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Girona
Real Sociedad II
- L2-4Almeria17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Celta de Vigo II10 October 2026
- L2-3Granada CF4 October 2026
- L1-3away to AD Ceuta FC26 September 2026
- L0-1Mallorca19 September 2026
Girona
- D1-1away to Tenerife12 October 2026
- D0-0Mallorca4 October 2026
- W2-0Albacete25 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cadiz19 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón12 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Girona scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 8 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Girona
- 18 April 2022Girona 2–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 22 November 2021Real Sociedad II 1–2 GironaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Girona
Real Sociedad II
GoalsAssists
- Gorka Gorosabel31
Girona
GoalsAssists
- Y. Asprilla50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Real Sociedad II carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.73 for Girona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Real Sociedad II and 1.75 for Girona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Sociedad II rate 0.77 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Girona rate 0.83 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Sociedad II a 0% chance of the title and Girona 9.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Real Sociedad II against 1.75 for Girona. Real Sociedad II's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.05 for Girona.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Real Sociedad II at home · Girona away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Real Sociedad IIGirona
Real Sociedad II are 19th after 10 Segunda División matches (between 4th and 22nd so far); Girona are 7th after 9 (between 2nd and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Real Sociedad II 10, Girona 9.
Real Sociedad II score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Girona have let in 1 there.
Girona score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Real Sociedad II have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Real Sociedad II
- at Sabadell8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 21%
- vs Sporting Gijon15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
- vs Cadiz22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Valladolid29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
Girona
- vs Almeria8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Oviedo15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Eibar22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.