Oviedo
vs
Girona
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Oviedo 1–2 Girona
The model makes it 34% Oviedo, 28% draw, 38% Girona — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Oviedo 1.35, Girona 1.43.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
Edge to Girona: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Oviedo's rating is built from 11 Segunda División matches and Girona's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,057 matches.
Key facts
- Oviedo are 9th on 18 points from 11 games; Girona are 4th on 21 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Oviedo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Almeria.
- Girona are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-1 win at home to Celta de Vigo II.
- Last 6 meetings: Girona 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Oviedo 1–0 Girona.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oviedo vs Girona
Has the model earned this number?
Girona at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Oviedo vs Girona
Oviedo
Segunda División
- D2-2away to Almeria24 October 2026
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC18 October 2026
- W3-1Eibar12 October 2026
- L1-4away to Eldense2 October 2026
- W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
Girona
Segunda División
- W5-1Celta de Vigo II24 October 2026
- W2-0FC Andorra18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tenerife12 October 2026
- D0-0Mallorca4 October 2026
- W2-0Albacete25 September 2026
What these results say
- Oviedo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Oviedo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oviedo had three goals or more.
- Girona went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Girona scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Girona had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Oviedo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Girona
- 31 January 2026Oviedo 1–0 GironaLa Liga
- 25 October 2025Girona 3–3 OviedoLa Liga
- 6 March 2022Girona 2–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 26 September 2021Oviedo 0–0 GironaSegunda División
- 25 April 2021Oviedo 0–1 GironaSegunda División
- 18 October 2020Girona 1–0 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Oviedo and Girona
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez40
Girona
GoalsAssists
- V. Vanat52
- Y. Asprilla51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Oviedo carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.75 for Girona.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Oviedo and 1.43 for Girona.
Oviedo rate 0.77 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Girona rate 0.92 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oviedo a 1.2% chance of the title and Girona 12.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Oviedo against 1.43 for Girona. Oviedo's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.13 for Girona.
How the model reaches 38% for Girona to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Girona to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Oviedo's ratings add 3 points and Girona's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Oviedo's ratings33%+3
- Girona's ratings38%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Oviedo at home · Girona away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
OviedoGirona
Oviedo are 9th after 11 Segunda División matches (between 5th and 16th so far); Girona are 4th after 11 (between 2nd and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Oviedo 11, Girona 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Oviedo
- at Cordoba22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- vs Celta de Vigo II29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 55%
- at FC Andorra6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
Girona
- vs Eibar22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 48%
- at Eldense29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- vs Valladolid6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.