Regular Season - 2 · 13 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

JS Saoura vs Khenchela Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: JS Saoura 1–0 Khenchela

The model makes it 45% JS Saoura, 31% draw, 24% Khenchela — fair odds of 2.22, 3.23 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).

Expected goals: JS Saoura 1.26, Khenchela 0.79.

Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,374 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. JS Saoura's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and Khenchela's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • JS Saoura are 15th on 3 points from 6 games; Khenchela are 13th on 5 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
  • JS Saoura have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Ben Aknoun.
  • Khenchela have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to JS Kabylie.
  • Last 6 meetings: JS Saoura 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 April 2026, ended JS Saoura 3–0 Khenchela.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: JS Saoura vs Khenchela

40%
Both teams to score
34%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

JS Saoura win Draw Khenchela win
  1. 1–016%
  2. 0–013%
  3. 1–113%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–110%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read JS Saoura first; the other scorelines share the remaining 25%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts JS Saoura at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into JS Saoura vs Khenchela

JS Saoura

Ligue 1

  • D0-0Ben Aknoun24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to MB Rouisset18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to USM Alger13 October 2026
  • D0-0Olympique Akbou8 October 2026
  • D0-0away to US Biskra22 September 2026

Khenchela

Ligue 1

  • L0-3JS Kabylie24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to MC Oran17 October 2026
  • W2-0CS Constantine12 October 2026
  • L0-1away to CR Belouizdad7 October 2026
  • D1-1Ben Aknoun18 September 2026

What these results say

  • JS Saoura did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • JS Saoura failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for JS Saoura had two goals or fewer.
  • Khenchela failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Khenchela conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Khenchela had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15JS Saoura603306-63
13Khenchela612336-35

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: JS Saoura vs Khenchela

  • 17 April 2026JS Saoura 3–0 KhenchelaLigue 1
  • 22 November 2025Khenchela 3–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
  • 18 February 2025Khenchela 1–3 JS SaouraLigue 1
  • 2 January 2025JS Saoura 2–1 KhenchelaCoupe Nationale
  • 28 September 2024JS Saoura 1–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
  • 26 May 2024Khenchela 1–0 JS SaouraLigue 1

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

JS Saoura carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.19 for Khenchela.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects a tight, low-scoring game

Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for JS Saoura and 0.79 for Khenchela.

JS Saoura rate 0.43 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Khenchela rate 0.48 and 1.80.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Khenchela, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,159 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives JS Saoura the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for JS Saoura against 0.79 for Khenchela. JS Saoura's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.8 for Khenchela.

How the model reaches 45% for JS Saoura to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for JS Saoura to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, JS Saoura's ratings change nothing and Khenchela's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. JS Saoura's ratings41%±0
  5. Khenchela's ratings45%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

JS SaouraKhenchela
6Matches6
0W 3D 3LRecord1W 2D 3L
0 0.0 per gameGoals scored3 0.5 per game
6 1.0 per gameGoals conceded6 1.0 per game
3 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6
6 of 6Failed to score4 of 6
–Penalties scored–
14 2.3 per gameYellow cards10 1.7 per game
2Red cards1

JS Saoura at home · Khenchela away

2Played2
0W 2D 0LRecord0W 0D 2L
0–0Goals for – against0–2
2 of 2Clean sheets0 of 2

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: JS Saoura 6, Khenchela 6.

JS Saoura scored 000000
Khenchela conceded 000222
Khenchela scored 001110
JS Saoura conceded 101103

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

JS Saoura

  • at MC Alger21 Nov · Ligue 1win 19%

Khenchela

  • at US Biskra21 Nov · Ligue 1win 40%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.