Leganes
vs
Burgos
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Leganes 0–1 Burgos
The model makes it 25% Leganes, 33% draw, 42% Burgos — fair odds of 4.00, 3.03 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Leganes 0.77, Burgos 1.14.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,373 settled matches.
One-sided: Burgos are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 30 October 2026. Leganes's rating is built from 53 Segunda División matches and Burgos's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,057 matches.
Key facts
- Leganes are 17th on 12 points from 11 games; Burgos are 6th on 20 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Leganes have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Mallorca.
- Burgos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to FC Andorra.
- Last 6 meetings: Burgos 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Burgos 2–1 Leganes.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leganes vs Burgos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leganes vs Burgos
Leganes
Segunda División
- D1-1Mallorca24 October 2026
- L0-1Cordoba16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Almeria11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cadiz3 October 2026
- L0-2Castellón28 September 2026
Burgos
Segunda División
- W3-2away to FC Andorra26 October 2026
- W1-0Sabadell18 October 2026
- L0-1Granada CF12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Almeria3 October 2026
- W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
What these results say
- Leganes did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Leganes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 12 |
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Burgos
- 31 January 2026Burgos 2–1 LeganesSegunda División
- 1 November 2025Leganes 1–2 BurgosSegunda División
- 22 January 2024Leganes 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 4 October 2023Burgos 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 12 May 2023Burgos 0–3 LeganesSegunda División
- 18 September 2022Leganes 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
The two sides
Leganes carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.66 for Burgos.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.77 goals for Leganes and 1.14 for Burgos.
Leganes rate 0.49 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burgos rate 0.66 and 1.01.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leganes a 0% chance of the title and Burgos 3.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,484 correct results out of 5,156 settled predictions (48%), with 512 exact scorelines (10%).
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Leganes against 1.14 for Burgos. Leganes's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.01 for Burgos.
How the model reaches 42% for Burgos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Burgos to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Leganes's ratings add 7 points and Burgos's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level28%−2
- Leganes's ratings35%+7
- Burgos's ratings42%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Leganes at home · Burgos away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LeganesBurgos
Leganes are 17th after 11 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 17th so far); Burgos are 6th after 11 (between 3rd and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Leganes 11, Burgos 11.
Burgos score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Leganes have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Leganes
- at FC Andorra22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 22%
- vs Sabadell29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- at Real Sociedad II6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
Burgos
- vs Albacete22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 54%
- at Eibar29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- vs Cadiz6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 53%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.