Công An Nhân Dân
vs
Vissel Kobe
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Công An Nhân Dân 1–2 Vissel Kobe
The model makes it 23% Công An Nhân Dân, 25% draw, 52% Vissel Kobe — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Công An Nhân Dân 1.10, Vissel Kobe 1.90.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Vissel Kobe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Công An Nhân Dân's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Vissel Kobe's from 58 matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.
Key facts
- Công An Nhân Dân are 11th on 4 points from 4 games; Vissel Kobe are top on 12 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Công An Nhân Dân have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Kyoto Sanga.
- Vissel Kobe are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Ratchaburi.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Công An Nhân Dân vs Vissel Kobe
Has the model earned this number?
Vissel Kobe at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Công An Nhân Dân vs Vissel Kobe
Công An Nhân Dân
AFC Champions League Elite
- D0-0Kyoto Sanga3 November 2026
- W3-2away to SHANGHAI SIPG27 October 2026
- L0-1Kashima13 October 2026
- L1-4away to Gamba Osaka15 September 2026
Vissel Kobe
AFC Champions League Elite
- W3-2Ratchaburi3 November 2026
- W1-0away to Daejeon Citizen27 October 2026
- W2-0Jeonbuk Motors14 October 2026
- W2-1away to Port FC16 September 2026
What these results say
- Công An Nhân Dân failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Công An Nhân Dân conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vissel Kobe won every one of these 4 matches.
- Vissel Kobe scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Công An Nhân Dân | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Công An Nhân Dân and Vissel Kobe
Công An Nhân Dân
GoalsAssists
- B. Perea31
Vissel Kobe
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vissel Kobe the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Công An Nhân Dân against 1.90 for Vissel Kobe. Công An Nhân Dân's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.26 for Vissel Kobe.
How the model reaches 52% for Vissel Kobe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Vissel Kobe to win. Then home advantage takes away 9 points, Công An Nhân Dân's ratings add 11 points and Vissel Kobe's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage28%−9
- Công An Nhân Dân's ratings39%+11
- Vissel Kobe's ratings52%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Công An Nhân Dân
- at Kashiwa Reysol1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 12%
- vs Beijing Guoan9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 29%
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 13%
Vissel Kobe
- vs Newcastle Jets1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 67%
- vs Pohang Steelers10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 59%
- at Buriram United16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.