Ratchaburi
vs
Johor Darul Takzim FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Ratchaburi 2–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC
The model makes it 38% Ratchaburi, 25% draw, 37% Johor Darul Takzim FC — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ratchaburi 1.69, Johor Darul Takzim FC 1.66.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Ratchaburi and Johor Darul Takzim FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Ratchaburi's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Johor Darul Takzim FC's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.
Key facts
- Ratchaburi are 14th on 1 point from 4 games; Johor Darul Takzim FC are 7th on 7 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Ratchaburi have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Vissel Kobe.
- Johor Darul Takzim FC have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Jeonbuk Motors.
- Last 2 meetings: Johor Darul Takzim FC 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 July 2021, ended Johor Darul Takzim FC 0–0 Ratchaburi.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ratchaburi vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
Has the model earned this number?
Ratchaburi at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ratchaburi vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
Ratchaburi
AFC Champions League Elite
- L2-3away to Vissel Kobe3 November 2026
- D0-0Kashiwa Reysol27 October 2026
- L0-1away to Kyoto Sanga13 October 2026
- L4-6SHANGHAI SIPG15 September 2026
Johor Darul Takzim FC
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-2away to Jeonbuk Motors3 November 2026
- W3-0Port FC27 October 2026
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers13 October 2026
- D1-1Buriram United15 September 2026
What these results say
- Ratchaburi did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Ratchaburi conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Johor Darul Takzim FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Johor Darul Takzim FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ratchaburi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 1 |
| 7 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ratchaburi vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
- 7 July 2021Johor Darul Takzim FC 0–0 RatchaburiAFC Champions League
- 25 June 2021Ratchaburi 0–1 Johor Darul Takzim FCAFC Champions League
Leading scorers: Ratchaburi and Johor Darul Takzim FC
Ratchaburi
GoalsAssists
- Martin Njiva Rakotoharimalala31
Johor Darul Takzim FC
GoalsAssists
- Marcos Guilherme21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ratchaburi the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Ratchaburi against 1.66 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. Ratchaburi's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.48 for Johor Darul Takzim FC.
How the model reaches 38% for Ratchaburi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ratchaburi to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Ratchaburi's ratings take away 5 points and Johor Darul Takzim FC's ratings take away 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level48%+1
- Ratchaburi's ratings43%−5
- Johor Darul Takzim FC's ratings38%−5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ratchaburi
- at Beijing Guoan1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
- vs Gamba Osaka9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 35%
- at Kashima16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 13%
Johor Darul Takzim FC
- vs Daejeon Citizen1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 41%
- at Newcastle Jets9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 40%
- vs Công An Nhân Dân16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 68%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.