League Phase - 5 · 24 November 2026, 10:00 UTC

Kyoto Sanga vs Pohang Steelers AFC Champions League Elite prediction

Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kyoto

Our model says: Kyoto Sanga 2–1 Pohang Steelers

The model makes it 50% Kyoto Sanga, 26% draw, 24% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Kyoto Sanga 1.80, Pohang Steelers 1.07.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Kyoto Sanga's rating is built from 58 matches and Pohang Steelers's from 73 K League 1 matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.

Key facts

  • Kyoto Sanga are 6th on 7 points from 4 games; Pohang Steelers are 15th on 1 point from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
  • Kyoto Sanga are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Công An Nhân Dân.
  • Pohang Steelers have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Gamba Osaka.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kyoto Sanga vs Pohang Steelers

55%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kyoto Sanga win Draw Pohang Steelers win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–010%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–06%
  6. 3–16%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Kyoto Sanga first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Kyoto Sanga at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kyoto Sanga vs Pohang Steelers

Kyoto Sanga

AFC Champions League Elite

  • D0-0away to Công An Nhân Dân3 November 2026
  • W5-2Newcastle Jets27 October 2026
  • W1-0Ratchaburi13 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Daejeon Citizen15 September 2026

Pohang Steelers

AFC Champions League Elite

  • D3-3Gamba Osaka4 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Kashima28 October 2026
  • L0-2Johor Darul Takzim FC13 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Beijing Guoan15 September 2026

What these results say

  • 3 of these 4 matches for Kyoto Sanga had two goals or fewer.
  • Pohang Steelers did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Pohang Steelers conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Pohang Steelers had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Kyoto Sanga421163+37
15Pohang Steelers4013411-71

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Kyoto Sanga and Pohang Steelers

Kyoto Sanga

GoalsAssists

  • Alex Negueba21

Pohang Steelers

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Kyoto Sanga Pohang Steelers
0.68 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.55
1.53 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.46
1.80 Model expected goals (this match) 1.07

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kyoto Sanga the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Kyoto Sanga against 1.07 for Pohang Steelers. Kyoto Sanga's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.46 for Pohang Steelers.

How the model reaches 50% for Kyoto Sanga to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Kyoto Sanga to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Kyoto Sanga's ratings add 3 points and Pohang Steelers's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage47%+10
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%−1
  4. Kyoto Sanga's ratings49%+3
  5. Pohang Steelers's ratings50%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Kyoto Sanga

  • at Buriram United1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 33%
  • vs Jeonbuk Motors9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 40%
  • at Port FC16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%

Pohang Steelers

  • vs Gwangju FC28 Nov · K League 1win 43%
  • vs SHANGHAI SIPG1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 38%
  • at Gimcheon Sangmu FC5 Dec · K League 1win 29%
  • at Vissel Kobe10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 17%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.