League Stage - 5 · 24 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund UEFA Champions League prediction

Emirates Stadium, London

Our model says: Arsenal 2–0 Borussia Dortmund

The model makes it 65% Arsenal, 22% draw, 13% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Arsenal 2.09, Borussia Dortmund 0.66.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Arsenal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Arsenal's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Borussia Dortmund's from 43 Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 18 matches for Arsenal, 14 for Borussia Dortmund. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.

Key facts

  • Arsenal are 3rd on 10 points from 4 games; Borussia Dortmund are 12th on 9 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Slavia Praha.
  • Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Real Betis.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Arsenal 2–3 Borussia Dortmund.

More Champions League predictions

All Champions League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund

43%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Arsenal win Draw Borussia Dortmund win
  1. 2–014%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 3–010%
  4. 1–19%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Arsenal first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Arsenal at 65%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund

Arsenal

UEFA Champions League

  • W2-1away to Slavia Praha4 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Bayern München21 October 2026
  • W3-0Lille13 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026

Borussia Dortmund

UEFA Champions League

  • W2-1Real Betis4 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Sabah FA20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt14 October 2026
  • W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026

What these results say

  • Arsenal went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Arsenal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Arsenal won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Borussia Dortmund conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Borussia Dortmund won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Borussia Dortmund scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Arsenal431083+510
12Borussia Dortmund430175+29

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund

  • 9 August 2026Arsenal 2–3 Borussia DortmundEmirates Cup
  • 26 November 2014Arsenal 2–0 Borussia DortmundUEFA Champions League
  • 16 September 2014Borussia Dortmund 2–0 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
  • 6 November 2013Borussia Dortmund 0–1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
  • 22 October 2013Arsenal 1–2 Borussia DortmundUEFA Champions League
  • 23 November 2011Arsenal 2–1 Borussia DortmundUEFA Champions League

The full Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund record →

Leading scorers: Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund

Arsenal

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Borussia Dortmund

GoalsAssists

  • S. Guirassy40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Arsenal Borussia Dortmund
1.38 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.21
0.52 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.58
2.09 Model expected goals (this match) 0.66

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Arsenal against 0.66 for Borussia Dortmund. Arsenal's attack/defence rating is 1.38/0.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.58 for Borussia Dortmund.

How the model reaches 65% for Arsenal to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Arsenal to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Arsenal's ratings add 8 points and Borussia Dortmund's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 65%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage47%+10
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−4
  4. Arsenal's ratings51%+8
  5. Borussia Dortmund's ratings65%+14

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ArsenalBorussia Dortmund
10Matches9
9W 0D 1LRecord6W 3D 0L
15 1.5 per gameGoals scored16 1.8 per game
5 0.5 per gameGoals conceded7 0.8 per game
7 of 10Clean sheets5 of 9
1 of 10Failed to score1 of 9
1 of 1Penalties scored–
14 1.4 per gameYellow cards19 2.1 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape3-4-2-1 7×

Arsenal at home · Borussia Dortmund away

5Played4
5W 0D 0LRecord2W 2D 0L
10–2Goals for – against6–4
3 of 5Clean sheets2 of 4

League matches only, this season — Arsenal in the Premier League, Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Arsenal 10 in the Premier League, Borussia Dortmund 9 in the Bundesliga.

Arsenal scored 230442
Borussia Dortmund conceded 002114
Borussia Dortmund scored 201246
Arsenal conceded 102200

Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Arsenal have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Arsenal

  • vs Manchester City29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
  • at Brentford2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 50%
  • at Tottenham6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 56%
  • vs Real Madrid9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%

Borussia Dortmund

  • vs Bayer Leverkusen29 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
  • at FC Schalke 046 Dec · Bundesligawin 55%
  • vs Inter9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 41%
  • vs FC Augsburg12 Dec · Bundesligawin 66%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.