Bodo/Glimt
vs
Lask Linz
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Bodo/Glimt 3–1 Lask Linz
The model makes it 70% Bodo/Glimt, 17% draw, 13% Lask Linz — fair odds of 1.43, 5.88 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 3.04, Lask Linz 1.08.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Bodo/Glimt are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bodo/Glimt's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Lask Linz's from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 22 matches for Bodo/Glimt, 6 for Lask Linz. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 722 matches.
Key facts
- Bodo/Glimt are 25th on 4 points from 4 games; Lask Linz are 16th on 6 points from 4 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Lille.
- Lask Linz have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Slovan Bratislava.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bodo/Glimt vs Lask Linz
Has the model earned this number?
Bodo/Glimt at 70%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bodo/Glimt vs Lask Linz
Bodo/Glimt
UEFA Champions League
- D0-0Lille3 November 2026
- L3-4away to Napoli20 October 2026
- W1-0Borussia Dortmund14 October 2026
- L0-5away to Bayern München10 September 2026
Lask Linz
UEFA Champions League
- W4-0Slovan Bratislava3 November 2026
- W3-2away to Sporting CP21 October 2026
- L3-6Liverpool14 October 2026
- L0-1away to AEK Athens FC8 September 2026
What these results say
- Bodo/Glimt failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lask Linz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lask Linz conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bodo/Glimt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Lask Linz | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lask Linz (16th, with Bodo/Glimt 25th), while our numbers lean to Bodo/Glimt. Bodo/Glimt rate 1.02 in attack and 0.82 in defence, Lask Linz 0.93 and 1.32 (lower is better in defence), so Bodo/Glimt have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodo/Glimt the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.04 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt against 1.08 for Lask Linz. Bodo/Glimt's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.32 for Lask Linz.
How the model reaches 70% for Bodo/Glimt to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Bodo/Glimt to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Bodo/Glimt's ratings add 10 points and Lask Linz's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level48%+1
- Bodo/Glimt's ratings58%+10
- Lask Linz's ratings70%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bodo/Glimt at home · Lask Linz away
League matches only, this season — Bodo/Glimt in the Eliteserien, Lask Linz in the Bundesliga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Bodo/Glimt 26 in the Eliteserien, Lask Linz 12 in the Bundesliga.
Bodo/Glimt score most often in the 16–30 minute window (14 goals); Lask Linz have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bodo/Glimt
- vs KFUM Oslo28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 70%
- at Aalesund5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 60%
- at Lens9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 30%
- vs Sarpsborg 08 FF13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 70%
Lask Linz
- at Red Bull Salzburg29 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- at Rapid Vienna5 Dec · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs Fenerbahçe9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 25%
- vs Austria Vienna13 Dec · Bundesligawin 63%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.