The model rates their attack at 0.99× the league average and their defence at 1.05× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better. Next they travel to Slovenia in the UEFA Nations League on 26 September 2026, a match the model gives them 34%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Scotland vs Slovenia
Scotland travel to Slovenia on 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The model makes it 34% Scotland, 30% draw and 36% Slovenia, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0. It projects 1.24 expected goals for Scotland against 1.29. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Full preview and model analysis for Scotland vs Slovenia