League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

SC Braga vs KuPS UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Braga

Our model says: SC Braga 2–0 KuPS

The model makes it 77% SC Braga, 17% draw, 6% KuPS — fair odds of 1.30, 5.88 and 16.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (18%).

Expected goals: SC Braga 2.46, KuPS 0.38.

Both teams to score: 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: SC Braga are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. SC Braga's rating is built from 45 matches and KuPS's from 64, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 29 matches for SC Braga, 19 for KuPS. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.

Key facts

  • SC Braga are 17th on 4 points from 3 games; KuPS are 33rd on 1 point from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • SC Braga have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Aarhus.
  • KuPS have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Gent.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: SC Braga vs KuPS

29%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

SC Braga win Draw KuPS win
  1. 2–018%
  2. 3–014%
  3. 1–014%
  4. 4–09%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 1–16%

Scores read SC Braga first; the other scorelines share the remaining 26%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

SC Braga at 77%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into SC Braga vs KuPS

SC Braga

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D0-0away to Aarhus5 November 2026
  • W2-0Gent22 October 2026
  • L0-3away to FC Copenhagen15 October 2026

KuPS

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D0-0Gent5 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka22 October 2026
  • L2-4Trabzonspor15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17SC Braga311123-14
33KuPS301226-41

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

SC Braga KuPS
1.1 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
0.87 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.5
2.46 Model expected goals (this match) 0.38

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for SC Braga against 0.38 for KuPS. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 1.1/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.5 for KuPS.

How the model reaches 77% for SC Braga to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for SC Braga to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, SC Braga's ratings add 18 points and KuPS's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 77%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage46%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−4
  4. SC Braga's ratings60%+18
  5. KuPS's ratings77%+17

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

SC BragaKuPS
11Matches32
5W 2D 4LRecord14W 11D 7L
13 1.2 per gameGoals scored46 1.4 per game
11 1.0 per gameGoals conceded33 1.0 per game
5 of 11Clean sheets9 of 32
2 of 11Failed to score8 of 32
1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 4
24 2.2 per gameYellow cards43 1.3 per game
0Red cards3
3-4-3 6×Usual shape4-2-3-1 24×

SC Braga at home · KuPS away

5Played16
3W 0D 2LRecord7W 5D 4L
7–5Goals for – against22–15
3 of 5Clean sheets4 of 16

League matches only, this season — SC Braga in the Primeira Liga, KuPS in the Finnish Premier League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: SC Braga 11 in the Primeira Liga, KuPS 32 in the Finnish Premier League.

SC Braga scored 201443
KuPS conceded 734675
KuPS scored 10713737
SC Braga conceded 122222

KuPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); SC Braga have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

SC Braga

  • at Casa Pia30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 54%
  • vs Arouca5 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 48%
  • at Brann10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
  • at Benfica14 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 21%
  • vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 86%

KuPS

  • vs CSKA Sofia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 26%
  • at FC Nordsjaelland17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 14%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.