FK Jablonec
vs
FC Lugano
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FK Jablonec 1–0 FC Lugano
The model makes it 46% FK Jablonec, 27% draw, 27% FC Lugano — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 1.65, FC Lugano 1.11.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. FK Jablonec's rating is built from 49 Czech Liga matches and FC Lugano's from 51 Swiss Super League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 7 matches for FK Jablonec, 9 for FC Lugano. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.
Key facts
- FK Jablonec are 23rd on 2 points from 3 games; FC Lugano are top on 9 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- FK Jablonec have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Riga.
- FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 3 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Kauno Žalgiris.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Jablonec vs FC Lugano
Has the model earned this number?
FK Jablonec at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FK Jablonec vs FC Lugano
FK Jablonec
UEFA Europa Conference League
- D1-1away to Riga5 November 2026
- D0-0Brighton22 October 2026
- L2-3away to SC Freiburg15 October 2026
FC Lugano
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W3-0Kauno Žalgiris5 November 2026
- W5-2away to Getafe22 October 2026
- W3-2FK Crvena Zvezda15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and FC Lugano
FK Jablonec
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- K. Behrens71
- Y. Cimignani34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Lugano (1st, with FK Jablonec 23rd), while our numbers lean to FK Jablonec. FK Jablonec rate 0.73 in attack and 1.28 in defence, FC Lugano 0.86 and 1.00 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Jablonec the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 1.11 for FC Lugano. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1 for FC Lugano.
How the model reaches 46% for FK Jablonec to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FK Jablonec to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, FK Jablonec's ratings take away 1 point and FC Lugano's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage46%+9
- FK Jablonec's ratings45%−1
- FC Lugano's ratings46%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FK Jablonec at home · FC Lugano away
League matches only, this season — FK Jablonec in the Czech Liga, FC Lugano in the Super League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FK Jablonec 14 in the Czech Liga, FC Lugano 13 in the Super League.
FK Jablonec score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Lugano have let in 3 there.
FC Lugano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FK Jablonec have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FK Jablonec
- vs Pardubice29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 35%
- at Slovácko5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 38%
- at Trabzonspor10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 12%
- vs Bohemians 190513 Dec · Czech Ligawin 36%
FC Lugano
- at FC Luzern29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 51%
- at FC Zurich5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 52%
- at FC Copenhagen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 25%
- vs FC Thun13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 67%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.