League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Stadion Poljud, Split

Our model says: HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 St. Truiden

The model makes it 31% HNK Hajduk Split, 28% draw, 41% St. Truiden — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 1.23, St. Truiden 1.49.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to St. Truiden: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. HNK Hajduk Split's rating is built from 49 Croatian HNL matches and St. Truiden's from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 11 matches for HNK Hajduk Split, 5 for St. Truiden. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.

Key facts

  • HNK Hajduk Split are 13th on 6 points from 3 games; St. Truiden are 10th on 7 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • HNK Hajduk Split have won 2 of their last 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Lincoln Red Imps FC.
  • St. Truiden are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Brann.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

HNK Hajduk Split win Draw St. Truiden win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 0–27%
  7. 0–07%

Scores read HNK Hajduk Split first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

St. Truiden at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden

HNK Hajduk Split

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-1away to Lincoln Red Imps FC5 November 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Thun22 October 2026
  • W2-1Ajax15 October 2026

St. Truiden

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1Brann5 November 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Midtjylland22 October 2026
  • W2-0FC Iberia 199915 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13HNK Hajduk Split320132+16
10St. Truiden321041+37

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

HNK Hajduk Split St. Truiden
0.83 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.04
1.12 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.13
1.23 Model expected goals (this match) 1.49

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives St. Truiden the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 1.49 for St. Truiden. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.13 for St. Truiden.

How the model reaches 41% for St. Truiden to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for St. Truiden to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, HNK Hajduk Split's ratings add 7 points and St. Truiden's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage28%−8
  3. Both sides at this match's level27%−1
  4. HNK Hajduk Split's ratings34%+7
  5. St. Truiden's ratings41%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

HNK Hajduk SplitSt. Truiden
13Matches11
9W 2D 2LRecord3W 2D 6L
27 2.1 per gameGoals scored22 2.0 per game
11 0.8 per gameGoals conceded22 2.0 per game
7 of 13Clean sheets1 of 11
1 of 13Failed to score3 of 11
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 4
27 2.1 per gameYellow cards20 1.8 per game
0Red cards1

HNK Hajduk Split at home · St. Truiden away

7Played5
6W 1D 0LRecord1W 1D 3L
17–3Goals for – against12–13
5 of 7Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, this season — HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL, St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: HNK Hajduk Split 13 in the HNL, St. Truiden 11 in the Jupiler Pro League.

HNK Hajduk Split scored 542717
St. Truiden conceded 134632
St. Truiden scored 414565
HNK Hajduk Split conceded 023223

St. Truiden score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); HNK Hajduk Split have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

HNK Hajduk Split

  • vs Rudes29 Nov · HNLwin 67%
  • at NK Slaven Belupo5 Dec · HNLwin 52%
  • vs FC Nordsjaelland10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
  • vs HNK Rijeka13 Dec · HNLwin 56%

St. Truiden

  • vs Genk29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 42%
  • vs Ajax10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 35%
  • at Gent13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 23%
  • at FC Lugano17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.