League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Stadion Balgarska Armia, Sofia

Our model says: CSKA Sofia 0–1 Trabzonspor

The model makes it 27% CSKA Sofia, 27% draw, 46% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.11, Trabzonspor 1.62.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

One-sided: Trabzonspor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. CSKA Sofia's rating is built from 50 Bulgarian First League matches and Trabzonspor's from 45 Süper Lig matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 11 matches for CSKA Sofia, 5 for Trabzonspor. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.

Key facts

  • CSKA Sofia are 28th on 1 point from 3 games; Trabzonspor are 12th on 6 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • CSKA Sofia have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Panathinaikos.
  • Trabzonspor have won 2 of their last 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to SC Freiburg.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor

54%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

CSKA Sofia win Draw Trabzonspor win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–29%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read CSKA Sofia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Trabzonspor at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor

CSKA Sofia

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L1-2away to Panathinaikos5 November 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Nordsjaelland22 October 2026
  • L1-2Monaco15 October 2026

Trabzonspor

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-1SC Freiburg5 November 2026
  • W2-0Heart of Midlothian22 October 2026
  • W4-2away to KuPS15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
28CSKA Sofia301246-21
12Trabzonspor320163+36

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: CSKA Sofia and Trabzonspor

CSKA Sofia

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Trabzonspor

GoalsAssists

  • Franculino Djú52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

CSKA Sofia Trabzonspor
0.84 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.12
1.1 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.87
1.11 Model expected goals (this match) 1.62

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Trabzonspor the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 1.62 for Trabzonspor. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.87 for Trabzonspor.

How the model reaches 46% for Trabzonspor to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Trabzonspor to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, CSKA Sofia's ratings add 9 points and Trabzonspor's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 46%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage28%−8
  3. Both sides at this match's level27%−1
  4. CSKA Sofia's ratings36%+9
  5. Trabzonspor's ratings46%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CSKA SofiaTrabzonspor
14Matches11
10W 4D 0LRecord8W 1D 2L
32 2.3 per gameGoals scored26 2.4 per game
9 0.6 per gameGoals conceded8 0.7 per game
7 of 14Clean sheets6 of 11
2 of 14Failed to score1 of 11
3 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1
37 2.6 per gameYellow cards20 1.8 per game
2Red cards1
4-1-4-1 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 5×

CSKA Sofia at home · Trabzonspor away

7Played6
6W 1D 0LRecord3W 1D 2L
19–5Goals for – against11–7
3 of 7Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, this season — CSKA Sofia in the First League, Trabzonspor in the Süper Lig; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: CSKA Sofia 14 in the First League, Trabzonspor 11 in the Süper Lig.

CSKA Sofia scored 385349
Trabzonspor conceded 211211

CSKA Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Trabzonspor have let in 1 there.

Trabzonspor scored 547523
CSKA Sofia conceded 303111

Trabzonspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); CSKA Sofia have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

CSKA Sofia

  • at Dunav Ruse29 Nov · First Leaguewin 56%
  • vs Septemvri Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 74%
  • at KuPS10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 46%
  • vs FC Thun17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 66%

Trabzonspor

  • at Göztepe30 Nov · Süper Ligwin 45%
  • vs Çorum FK6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 65%
  • vs FK Jablonec10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 68%
  • at Fenerbahçe13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 27%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.