Pafos
vs
FC Midtjylland
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Pafos 1–0 FC Midtjylland
The model makes it 37% Pafos, 30% draw, 33% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pafos 1.22, FC Midtjylland 1.11.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Pafos's rating is built from 45 Cypriot First Division matches and FC Midtjylland's from 46 Danish Superliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 21 matches for Pafos, 25 for FC Midtjylland. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.
Key facts
- Pafos are 30th on 1 point from 3 games; FC Midtjylland are 34th on 1 point from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Pafos have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Twente.
- FC Midtjylland have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat at home to Ajax.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pafos vs FC Midtjylland
Has the model earned this number?
Pafos at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pafos vs FC Midtjylland
Pafos
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L1-3away to Twente5 November 2026
- D1-1Riga22 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atalanta15 October 2026
FC Midtjylland
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L1-6Ajax5 November 2026
- L0-1St. Truiden22 October 2026
- D1-1away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Pafos and FC Midtjylland
Pafos
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
FC Midtjylland
GoalsAssists
- Cho Gue-Sung30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Pafos against 1.11 for FC Midtjylland. Pafos's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.05 for FC Midtjylland.
How the model reaches 37% for Pafos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Pafos to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Pafos's ratings take away 4 points and FC Midtjylland's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage46%+9
- Both sides at this match's level44%−2
- Pafos's ratings40%−4
- FC Midtjylland's ratings37%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Pafos's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and FC Midtjylland's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Pafos at home · FC Midtjylland away
League matches only, this season — Pafos in the 1. Division, FC Midtjylland in the Superliga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Pafos 9 in the 1. Division, FC Midtjylland 14 in the Superliga.
Pafos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Midtjylland have let in 4 there.
FC Midtjylland score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Pafos have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Pafos
- vs Aris29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 52%
- at Omonia Nicosia3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 18%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 66%
- at Mjallby AIF10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 49%
FC Midtjylland
- at FC Copenhagen29 Nov · Superligawin 33%
- vs Silkeborg6 Dec · Superligawin 69%
- at Lincoln Red Imps FC10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 68%
- vs HNK Hajduk Split17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.