League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Gradski stadion Banja Luka, Banja Luka

Our model says: Borac Banja Luka 0–2 Atalanta

The model makes it 16% Borac Banja Luka, 24% draw, 60% Atalanta — fair odds of 6.25, 4.17 and 1.67.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).

Expected goals: Borac Banja Luka 0.78, Atalanta 1.97.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Atalanta are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Borac Banja Luka's rating is built from 48 Bosnian Premier League matches and Atalanta's from 49 Serie A matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 7 matches for Borac Banja Luka, 17 for Atalanta. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.

Key facts

  • Borac Banja Luka are 21st on 3 points from 3 games; Atalanta are 16th on 4 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • Borac Banja Luka have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Mjallby AIF.
  • Atalanta have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Kairat Almaty.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta

47%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Borac Banja Luka win Draw Atalanta win
  1. 0–212%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 1–110%
  4. 1–210%
  5. 0–38%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 1–36%

Scores read Borac Banja Luka first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Atalanta at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta

Borac Banja Luka

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • L0-2away to Mjallby AIF5 November 2026
  • W2-0KuPS22 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Panathinaikos15 October 2026

Atalanta

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1Kairat Almaty5 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Ajax22 October 2026
  • W3-1Pafos15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Borac Banja Luka310234-13
16Atalanta31114404

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Borac Banja Luka Atalanta
0.79 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.16
1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.93
0.78 Model expected goals (this match) 1.97

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka against 1.97 for Atalanta. Borac Banja Luka's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.93 for Atalanta.

How the model reaches 60% for Atalanta to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atalanta to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Borac Banja Luka's ratings add 15 points and Atalanta's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 60%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage28%−8
  3. Both sides at this match's level27%−1
  4. Borac Banja Luka's ratings42%+15
  5. Atalanta's ratings60%+18

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Borac Banja LukaAtalanta
12Matches11
10W 1D 1LRecord4W 2D 5L
27 2.3 per gameGoals scored17 1.5 per game
10 0.8 per gameGoals conceded20 1.8 per game
5 of 12Clean sheets2 of 11
1 of 12Failed to score2 of 11
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
9 0.8 per gameYellow cards11 1.0 per game
0Red cards2
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-3-3 6×

Borac Banja Luka at home · Atalanta away

7Played5
7W 0D 0LRecord1W 1D 3L
16–2Goals for – against6–9
5 of 7Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, this season — Borac Banja Luka in the Premijer Liga, Atalanta in the Serie A; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Borac Banja Luka 12 in the Premijer Liga, Atalanta 11 in the Serie A.

Borac Banja Luka scored 318555
Atalanta conceded 143524

Borac Banja Luka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Atalanta have let in 3 there.

Atalanta scored 414432
Borac Banja Luka conceded 121312

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Borac Banja Luka

  • vs FK Sarajevo28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 53%
  • at Zrinjski2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 27%
  • vs Siroki Brijeg5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 72%

Atalanta

  • at Lecce30 Nov · Serie Awin 49%
  • at Lazio6 Dec · Serie Awin 28%
  • at Riga10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 68%
  • vs Genoa14 Dec · Serie Awin 45%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.