League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

Brann vs Aarhus UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Brann Stadion, Bergen

Our model says: Brann 1–0 Aarhus

The model makes it 50% Brann, 27% draw, 23% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Brann 1.66, Aarhus 0.94.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Brann's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Aarhus's from 46 Danish Superliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 25 matches for Brann, 9 for Aarhus. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.

Key facts

  • Brann are 6th on 7 points from 3 games; Aarhus are 24th on 2 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • Brann are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to St. Truiden.
  • Aarhus have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to SC Braga.

More Conference League predictions

All Conference League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Brann vs Aarhus

50%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Brann win Draw Aarhus win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Brann first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Brann at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Brann vs Aarhus

Brann

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D1-1away to St. Truiden5 November 2026
  • W4-1away to Kauno Žalgiris22 October 2026
  • W2-1Lincoln Red Imps FC15 October 2026

Aarhus

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • D0-0SC Braga5 November 2026
  • D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Gent15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Brann321073+47
24Aarhus302112-12

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Brann and Aarhus

Brann

GoalsAssists

  • N. Holm30

Aarhus

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Brann Aarhus
0.82 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.77
1.26 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.12
1.66 Model expected goals (this match) 0.94

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Brann the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Brann against 0.94 for Aarhus. Brann's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.12 for Aarhus.

How the model reaches 50% for Brann to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Brann to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Brann's ratings add 2 points and Aarhus's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage46%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%−1
  4. Brann's ratings47%+2
  5. Aarhus's ratings50%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

BrannAarhus
26Matches14
10W 3D 13LRecord3W 6D 5L
47 1.8 per gameGoals scored19 1.4 per game
44 1.7 per gameGoals conceded21 1.5 per game
3 of 26Clean sheets2 of 14
4 of 26Failed to score3 of 14
3 of 4Penalties scored2 of 2
48 1.8 per gameYellow cards20 1.4 per game
1Red cards0
4-3-3 23×Usual shape3-4-2-1 13×

Brann at home · Aarhus away

13Played7
7W 0D 6LRecord0W 3D 4L
23–20Goals for – against7–13
1 of 13Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, this season — Brann in the Eliteserien, Aarhus in the Superliga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Brann 26 in the Eliteserien, Aarhus 14 in the Superliga.

Brann scored 45106810
Aarhus conceded 244317
Aarhus scored 313345
Brann conceded 787768

Aarhus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Brann have let in 8 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Brann

  • vs Kristiansund BK29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 59%
  • at Sarpsborg 08 FF6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 41%
  • vs SC Braga10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
  • vs Aalesund13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 56%

Aarhus

  • at Silkeborg29 Nov · Superligawin 48%
  • vs Randers FC5 Dec · Superligawin 60%
  • vs Twente10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 26%
  • at Inter Club d'Escaldes17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 59%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.