FC Nordsjaelland
vs
Panathinaikos
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 Panathinaikos
The model makes it 39% FC Nordsjaelland, 29% draw, 32% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Nordsjaelland 1.31, Panathinaikos 1.13.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. FC Nordsjaelland's rating is built from 46 Danish Superliga matches and Panathinaikos's from 42 Greek Super League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 7 matches for FC Nordsjaelland, 27 for Panathinaikos. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.
Key facts
- FC Nordsjaelland are 25th on 2 points from 3 games; Panathinaikos are 2nd on 9 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- FC Nordsjaelland have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Monaco.
- Panathinaikos are unbeaten in their last 3 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to CSKA Sofia.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Nordsjaelland vs Panathinaikos
Has the model earned this number?
FC Nordsjaelland at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Nordsjaelland vs Panathinaikos
FC Nordsjaelland
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L0-2away to Monaco5 November 2026
- D2-2CSKA Sofia22 October 2026
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian15 October 2026
Panathinaikos
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W2-1CSKA Sofia5 November 2026
- W5-1away to Kairat Almaty22 October 2026
- W2-1Borac Banja Luka15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: FC Nordsjaelland and Panathinaikos
FC Nordsjaelland
GoalsAssists
- N. Røjkjær42
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- C. Dessers60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Panathinaikos (2nd, with FC Nordsjaelland 25th), while our numbers lean to FC Nordsjaelland. FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.87 in attack and 1.16 in defence, Panathinaikos 1.13 and 0.74 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Nordsjaelland the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland against 1.13 for Panathinaikos. FC Nordsjaelland's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.74 for Panathinaikos.
How the model reaches 39% for FC Nordsjaelland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC Nordsjaelland to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, FC Nordsjaelland's ratings take away 2 points and Panathinaikos's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage46%+9
- Both sides at this match's level44%−2
- FC Nordsjaelland's ratings42%−2
- Panathinaikos's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Nordsjaelland at home · Panathinaikos away
League matches only, this season — FC Nordsjaelland in the Superliga, Panathinaikos in the Super League 1; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Nordsjaelland 14 in the Superliga, Panathinaikos 10 in the Super League 1.
FC Nordsjaelland score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Panathinaikos have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Nordsjaelland
- at Odense30 Nov · Superligawin 43%
- vs Lyngby6 Dec · Superligawin 61%
- at HNK Hajduk Split10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 28%
- vs KuPS17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 65%
Panathinaikos
- at Atromitos29 Nov · Super League 1win 53%
- vs Aris Thessalonikis6 Dec · Super League 1win 65%
- at SC Freiburg10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
- at PAOK13 Dec · Super League 1win 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.