League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Amex Stadium, Brighton

Our model says: Brighton 2–0 Universitatea Craiova

The model makes it 78% Brighton, 16% draw, 6% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 1.28, 6.25 and 16.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Brighton 2.71, Universitatea Craiova 0.49.

Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Brighton are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Brighton's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Universitatea Craiova's from 55 Romanian Liga I matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 5 matches for Brighton, 22 for Universitatea Craiova. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.

Key facts

  • Brighton are 5th on 7 points from 3 games; Universitatea Craiova are 8th on 7 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • Brighton are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Getafe.
  • Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Egnatia Rrogozhinë.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova

36%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Brighton win Draw Universitatea Craiova win
  1. 2–015%
  2. 3–014%
  3. 1–011%
  4. 4–09%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 1–16%

Scores read Brighton first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Brighton at 78%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova

Brighton

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W1-0away to Getafe5 November 2026
  • D0-0away to FK Jablonec22 October 2026
  • W4-0Kauno Žalgiris15 October 2026

Universitatea Craiova

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W2-0Egnatia Rrogozhinë5 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Inter Club d'Escaldes22 October 2026
  • D1-1Getafe15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Brighton321050+57
8Universitatea Craiova321062+47

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Brighton Universitatea Craiova
1.4 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.92
0.68 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.89
2.71 Model expected goals (this match) 0.49

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Brighton against 0.49 for Universitatea Craiova. Brighton's attack/defence rating is 1.4/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.89 for Universitatea Craiova.

How the model reaches 78% for Brighton to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Brighton to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Brighton's ratings add 16 points and Universitatea Craiova's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 78%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage46%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level44%−2
  4. Brighton's ratings60%+16
  5. Universitatea Craiova's ratings78%+18

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

BrightonUniversitatea Craiova
10Matches15
7W 1D 2LRecord10W 3D 2L
26 2.6 per gameGoals scored34 2.3 per game
7 0.7 per gameGoals conceded10 0.7 per game
7 of 10Clean sheets9 of 15
1 of 10Failed to score2 of 15
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 3
24 2.4 per gameYellow cards24 1.6 per game
1Red cards2
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape3-4-3 15×

Brighton at home · Universitatea Craiova away

5Played7
4W 1D 0LRecord3W 3D 1L
15–1Goals for – against10–7
4 of 5Clean sheets4 of 7

League matches only, this season — Brighton in the Premier League, Universitatea Craiova in the Liga I; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Brighton 10 in the Premier League, Universitatea Craiova 15 in the Liga I.

Brighton scored 436424
Universitatea Craiova conceded 210215

Brighton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Universitatea Craiova have let in 0 there.

Universitatea Craiova scored 2631048
Brighton conceded 511020

Universitatea Craiova score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Brighton have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Brighton

  • vs Newcastle29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 64%
  • at Bournemouth2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 45%
  • at Nottingham Forest5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
  • vs Monaco10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%

Universitatea Craiova

  • vs Dinamo Bucuresti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 52%
  • at Petrolul Ploiesti5 Dec · Liga Iwin 51%
  • at Kairat Almaty10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 68%
  • at Arges Pitesti12 Dec · Liga Iwin 51%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.