League Stage - 4 · 26 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

Ajax vs FC Thun UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

Our model says: Ajax 3–0 FC Thun

The model makes it 76% Ajax, 15% draw, 9% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).

Expected goals: Ajax 3.25, FC Thun 0.88.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Ajax are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Ajax's rating is built from 48 Eredivisie matches and FC Thun's from 51 Swiss Super League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 17 matches for Ajax, 7 for FC Thun. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.

Key facts

  • Ajax are 11th on 6 points from 3 games; FC Thun are 20th on 3 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
  • Ajax have won 2 of their last 3 games, most recently a 6-1 win away to FC Midtjylland.
  • FC Thun have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Heart of Midlothian.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ajax vs FC Thun

56%
Both teams to score
78%
Over 2.5 goals
22%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ajax win Draw FC Thun win
  1. 3–09%
  2. 2–09%
  3. 3–18%
  4. 4–08%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 4–17%
  7. 1–05%

Scores read Ajax first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ajax at 76%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ajax vs FC Thun

Ajax

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W6-1away to FC Midtjylland5 November 2026
  • W2-0Atalanta22 October 2026
  • L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split15 October 2026

FC Thun

UEFA Europa Conference League

  • W3-1Heart of Midlothian5 November 2026
  • L0-1HNK Hajduk Split22 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Twente15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Ajax320193+66
20FC Thun31023303

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Ajax and FC Thun

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • T. Arokodare63
  • D. Klaassen60
  • O. Gloukh52

FC Thun

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ajax FC Thun
1.09 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.82
0.79 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.88
3.25 Model expected goals (this match) 0.88

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.25 expected goals for Ajax against 0.88 for FC Thun. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.88 for FC Thun.

How the model reaches 76% for Ajax to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ajax to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Ajax's ratings add 15 points and FC Thun's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 76%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage46%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level48%+2
  4. Ajax's ratings63%+15
  5. FC Thun's ratings76%+13

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

AjaxFC Thun
12Matches13
7W 4D 1LRecord4W 2D 7L
32 2.7 per gameGoals scored27 2.1 per game
15 1.3 per gameGoals conceded37 2.8 per game
3 of 12Clean sheets1 of 13
0 of 12Failed to score3 of 13
0 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
26 2.2 per gameYellow cards28 2.2 per game
0Red cards2
4-3-3 9×Usual shape4-4-2 9×

Ajax at home · FC Thun away

6Played7
2W 3D 1LRecord4W 0D 3L
12–9Goals for – against20–20
1 of 6Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, this season — Ajax in the Eredivisie, FC Thun in the Super League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Ajax 12 in the Eredivisie, FC Thun 13 in the Super League.

Ajax scored 337496
FC Thun conceded 655868

Ajax score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); FC Thun have let in 6 there.

FC Thun scored 424645
Ajax conceded 214214

FC Thun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Ajax have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Ajax

  • at Feyenoord29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
  • vs Utrecht6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 67%
  • at St. Truiden10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 38%
  • vs Cambuur13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 65%

FC Thun

  • vs FC St. Gallen29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 36%
  • vs FC Luzern5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 45%
  • vs Gent10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 20%
  • at FC Lugano13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 15%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.