SC Freiburg
vs
Twente
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: SC Freiburg 2–1 Twente
The model makes it 52% SC Freiburg, 26% draw, 22% Twente — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.86, Twente 1.04.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. SC Freiburg's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and Twente's from 46 Eredivisie matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 20 matches for SC Freiburg, 9 for Twente. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,130 matches.
Key facts
- SC Freiburg are 14th on 6 points from 3 games; Twente are 3rd on 9 points from 3 games — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- SC Freiburg have won 2 of their last 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Trabzonspor.
- Twente are unbeaten in their last 3 games (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Pafos.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Freiburg vs Twente
Has the model earned this number?
SC Freiburg at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SC Freiburg vs Twente
SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W1-0away to Trabzonspor5 November 2026
- L0-3away to Monaco22 October 2026
- W3-2FK Jablonec15 October 2026
Twente
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W3-1Pafos5 November 2026
- W4-1away to Lincoln Red Imps FC22 October 2026
- W1-0FC Thun15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and Twente
SC Freiburg
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Twente
GoalsAssists
- M. Pjaca41
- D. Weidmann35
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Twente (3rd, with SC Freiburg 14th), while our numbers lean to SC Freiburg. SC Freiburg rate 1.19 in attack and 0.83 in defence, Twente 1.12 and 0.76 (lower is better in defence), so SC Freiburg have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 1.04 for Twente. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 1.19/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.76 for Twente.
How the model reaches 52% for SC Freiburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for SC Freiburg to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, SC Freiburg's ratings add 3 points and Twente's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage46%+9
- SC Freiburg's ratings49%+3
- Twente's ratings52%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
SC Freiburg at home · Twente away
League matches only, this season — SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, Twente in the Eredivisie; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: SC Freiburg 9 in the Bundesliga, Twente 12 in the Eredivisie.
SC Freiburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Twente have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SC Freiburg
- vs RB Leipzig29 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim5 Dec · Bundesligawin 56%
- vs Panathinaikos10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 43%
- at FSV Mainz 0513 Dec · Bundesligawin 46%
Twente
- at NEC Nijmegen29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 49%
- at GO Ahead Eagles6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 56%
- at Aarhus10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 46%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 73%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.