Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Premier League prediction

Arena Khimki, Khimki

Our model says: Rodina Moskva 1–2 Lokomotiv

The model makes it 34% Rodina Moskva, 26% draw, 40% Lokomotiv — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Rodina Moskva 1.51, Lokomotiv 1.67.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Lokomotiv: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Rodina Moskva's rating is built from 14 Russian Premier League matches and Lokomotiv's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.

Key facts

  • Rodina Moskva are 13th on 12 points from 14 games; Lokomotiv are 15th on 11 points from 14 games — Premier League.
  • Rodina Moskva have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Akhmat.
  • Lokomotiv are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rubin.
  • Last 4 meetings: Lokomotiv 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Lokomotiv 0–0 Rodina Moskva.

More Russian Premier League predictions

All Russian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv

64%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rodina Moskva win Draw Lokomotiv win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 0–16%
  6. 0–26%
  7. 1–06%

Scores read Rodina Moskva first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Lokomotiv at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv

Rodina Moskva

Premier League

  • L0-1away to Akhmat7 November 2026
  • W2-1FC Krasnodar31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Fakel24 October 2026
  • D2-2FC Orenburg19 October 2026
  • L0-3away to CSKA Moscow11 October 2026

Lokomotiv

Premier League

  • L0-1Rubin6 November 2026
  • L0-4Spartak Moscow1 November 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Rostov25 October 2026
  • D3-3FC Krasnodar17 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Fakel10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Rodina Moskva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Rodina Moskva143381529-1412
15Lokomotiv142571621-511

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Rodina Moskva

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 73% today

Win 64%
Draw 74%
Defeat 82%

Lokomotiv

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 44% today

Win 33%
Draw 47%
Defeat 53%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv

  • 27 June 2026Lokomotiv 0–0 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 June 2024Lokomotiv 0–1 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 January 2023Lokomotiv Moscow 2–1 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 January 2023Lokomotiv Moscow 2–1 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rodina Moskva and Lokomotiv

Rodina Moskva

GoalsAssists

  • A. Maksimenko31

Lokomotiv

GoalsAssists

  • N. Titkov31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rodina Moskva (13th, with Lokomotiv 15th), while our numbers lean to Lokomotiv. Lokomotiv rate 0.56 in attack and 2.00 in defence, Rodina Moskva 0.49 and 2.42 (lower is better in defence), so Lokomotiv have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Rodina Moskva Lokomotiv
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.56
2.42 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2
1.51 Model expected goals (this match) 1.67

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lokomotiv the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Rodina Moskva against 1.67 for Lokomotiv. Rodina Moskva's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2 for Lokomotiv.

Rodina Moskva carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.22 for Lokomotiv.

How the model reaches 40% for Lokomotiv to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lokomotiv to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Rodina Moskva's ratings add 4 points and Lokomotiv's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Rodina Moskva's ratings35%+4
  4. Lokomotiv's ratings40%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Rodina MoskvaLokomotiv
14Matches14
3W 3D 8LRecord2W 5D 7L
15 1.1 per gameGoals scored16 1.1 per game
29 2.1 per gameGoals conceded21 1.5 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets3 of 14
5 of 14Failed to score5 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored–
40 2.9 per gameYellow cards34 2.4 per game
1Red cards0
4-4-2 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Rodina Moskva at home · Lokomotiv away

6Played7
1W 3D 2LRecord2W 1D 4L
10–14Goals for – against11–10
0 of 6Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Rodina Moskva 14, Lokomotiv 14.

Rodina Moskva scored 303323
Lokomotiv conceded 222374
Lokomotiv scored 342242
Rodina Moskva conceded 063579

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Rodina Moskva

  • at FC Orenburg29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
  • vs CSKA Moscow5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
  • at Baltika27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 20%
  • vs Dynamo6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 22%
  • vs Zenit13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 18%

Lokomotiv

  • vs Dinamo Makhachkala29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
  • at Akhmat5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
  • at Krylia Sovetov27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 31%
  • vs CSKA Moscow6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 35%
  • at Dynamo13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 19%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.