Regular Season - 11 · 22 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Hull City vs Brighton Premier League prediction

MKM Stadium, Hull

Our model says: Hull City 0–1 Brighton

The model makes it 23% Hull City, 27% draw, 50% Brighton — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Hull City 0.93, Brighton 1.64.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Brighton are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Hull City's rating is built from 10 Premier League matches and Brighton's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.

Key facts

Hull City are 13th on 11 points from 10 games; Brighton are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games — Premier League.
Hull City have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Arsenal.
Brighton have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Brentford.
Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 February 2016, ended Hull City 0–0 Brighton.

More Premier League predictions

All Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Hull City vs Brighton

49%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Hull City win Draw Brighton win

1–112%
0–112%
0–210%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
0–36%

Scores read Hull City first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Brighton at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Hull City vs Brighton

Hull City

Premier League

L0-1away to Arsenal7 November 2026
D2-2Ipswich31 October 2026
D1-1Brentford25 October 2026
L0-1away to Fulham17 October 2026
D2-2Everton11 October 2026

Brighton

Premier League

W2-0Brentford8 November 2026
W1-0away to Manchester City31 October 2026
L0-2away to Liverpool25 October 2026
W5-0Crystal Palace18 October 2026
W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026

What these results say

Hull City did not win any of these 5 matches.
Hull City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Brighton won 4 of these 5 matches.
Brighton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Brighton kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	11	11	0	11
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	26	7	+19	22

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Hull City

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today

Win 9%

Draw 12%

Defeat 16%

Brighton

Chance to finish in the top four · 89% today

Win 92%

Draw 88%

Defeat 86%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Hull City vs Brighton

16 February 2016Hull City 0–0 BrightonChampionship
9 January 2016Hull City 1–0 BrightonFA Cup
12 September 2015Brighton 1–0 Hull CityChampionship
24 February 2014Hull City 2–1 BrightonFA Cup
17 February 2014Brighton 1–1 Hull CityFA Cup
9 February 2013Brighton 1–0 Hull CityChampionship

The full Hull City vs Brighton record →

Leading scorers: Hull City and Brighton

Hull City

GoalsAssists

M. Belloumi32

Brighton

GoalsAssists

P. Groß44
C. Kostoulas32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hull City a 0% chance of the title and Brighton 16.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Hull City Brighton

0.86 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.4

0.85 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.68

0.93 Model expected goals (this match) 1.64

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Hull City against 1.64 for Brighton. Hull City's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.4/0.68 for Brighton.

Hull City carry a model rating of 6.87 against 7.21 for Brighton.

How the model reaches 50% for Brighton to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Brighton to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Hull City's ratings add 8 points and Brighton's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 50%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage32%−4
Hull City's ratings40%+8
Brighton's ratings50%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Hull CityModelBrighton

Over 1.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

73%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

47%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

26%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

49%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Hull CityBrighton

10Matches10

2W 5D 3LRecord7W 1D 2L

11 1.1 per gameGoals scored26 2.6 per game

11 1.1 per gameGoals conceded7 0.7 per game

3 of 10Clean sheets7 of 10

3 of 10Failed to score1 of 10

1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2

30 3.0 per gameYellow cards24 2.4 per game

0Red cards1

5-4-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

Hull City at home · Brighton away

5Played5

1W 4D 0LRecord3W 0D 2L

7–5Goals for – against11–6

2 of 5Clean sheets3 of 5

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Hull CityBrighton

Hull City are 13th after 10 Premier League matches (between 2nd and 12th so far); Brighton are 2nd after 10 (between 1st and 9th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Hull City 10, Brighton 10.

Hull City scored 032231

Brighton conceded 511020

Brighton scored 436424

Hull City conceded 311150

Brighton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Hull City have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Hull City

at Crystal Palace29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 43%
vs Nottingham Forest2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
at Bournemouth5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
vs Tottenham14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 40%
at Manchester City19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%

Brighton

vs Universitatea Craiova26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 64%
vs Newcastle29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 64%
at Bournemouth2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 45%
at Nottingham Forest5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
vs Monaco10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.