Austria Vienna
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Austria Vienna 0–2 Red Bull Salzburg
The model makes it 19% Austria Vienna, 24% draw, 57% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Austria Vienna 0.93, Red Bull Salzburg 2.01.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Red Bull Salzburg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Austria Vienna's rating is built from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Red Bull Salzburg's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.
Key facts
- Austria Vienna are 11th on 8 points from 12 games; Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd on 30 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
- Austria Vienna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to WSG Wattens.
- Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-3 win away to Sturm Graz.
- Last 6 meetings: Red Bull Salzburg 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Red Bull Salzburg 4–1 Austria Vienna.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg
Has the model earned this number?
Red Bull Salzburg at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg
Austria Vienna
Bundesliga
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens8 November 2026
- L0-2Rapid Vienna1 November 2026
- L1-2away to SCR Altach23 October 2026
- L2-3away to Ried17 October 2026
- L0-2Sturm Graz10 October 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
Bundesliga
- W4-3away to Sturm Graz8 November 2026
- W5-1Austria Lustenau1 November 2026
- W3-1away to Lask Linz25 October 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Grazer AK10 October 2026
What these results say
- Austria Vienna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Austria Vienna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Austria Vienna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
Red Bull Salzburg
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 36% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 30 August 2026Red Bull Salzburg 4–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 22 April 2026Red Bull Salzburg 3–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 19 April 2026Austria Vienna 1–3 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 6 February 2026Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 26 October 2025Austria Vienna 0–3 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 4 May 2025Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 Austria ViennaBundesliga
Leading scorers: Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg
Austria Vienna
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- H. Tabaković80
- K. Konaté40
- Y. Vertessen33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Austria Vienna a 0% chance of the title and Red Bull Salzburg 36.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Austria Vienna against 2.01 for Red Bull Salzburg. Austria Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.02 for Red Bull Salzburg.
How the model reaches 57% for Red Bull Salzburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Red Bull Salzburg to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Austria Vienna's ratings add 13 points and Red Bull Salzburg's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Austria Vienna's ratings43%+13
- Red Bull Salzburg's ratings57%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Austria Vienna at home · Red Bull Salzburg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Austria ViennaRed Bull Salzburg
Austria Vienna are 11th after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 8th and 12th so far); Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd after 12 (between 1st and 4th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Austria Vienna 12, Red Bull Salzburg 12.
Austria Vienna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Red Bull Salzburg have let in 1 there.
Red Bull Salzburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Austria Vienna have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Austria Vienna
- vs Wolfsberger AC28 Nov · Bundesligawin 51%
- at Sturm Graz6 Dec · Bundesligawin 17%
- at Lask Linz13 Dec · Bundesligawin 16%
- vs Grazer AK23 Jan · Bundesligawin 50%
- at Rapid Vienna30 Jan · Bundesligawin 11%
Red Bull Salzburg
- vs Lask Linz29 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
- at SCR Altach4 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
- vs Sparta Praha10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 35%
- vs Wolfsberger AC13 Dec · Bundesligawin 78%
- at Bayer Leverkusen21 Jan · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.