Dinamo Makhachkala
vs
Spartak Moscow
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 Spartak Moscow
The model makes it 22% Dinamo Makhachkala, 25% draw, 53% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 4.55, 4.00 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dinamo Makhachkala 1.03, Spartak Moscow 1.88.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Spartak Moscow are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Dinamo Makhachkala's rating is built from 46 Russian Premier League matches and Spartak Moscow's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- Dinamo Makhachkala are 11th on 16 points from 14 games; Spartak Moscow are 3rd on 29 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Baltika.
- Spartak Moscow have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Akron.
- Last 6 meetings: Spartak Moscow 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Dinamo Makhachkala 0–0 Spartak Moscow.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow
Has the model earned this number?
Spartak Moscow at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League
- W1-0away to Baltika8 November 2026
- L0-3FC Rostov1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Zenit25 October 2026
- D1-1Akron17 October 2026
- L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026
Spartak Moscow
Premier League
- W2-1Akron8 November 2026
- W4-0away to Lokomotiv1 November 2026
- L0-2away to CSKA Moscow25 October 2026
- W4-0Rubin18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Krylia Sovetov10 October 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Moscow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 16 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Makhachkala
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 44% today
Spartak Moscow
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 21% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow
- 17 May 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 0–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 21 October 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–3 Spartak MoscowCup
- 12 August 2025Spartak Moscow 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 19 July 2025Spartak Moscow 1–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 11 April 2025Spartak Moscow 1–2 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 22 October 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 Spartak MoscowCup
Leading scorers: Dinamo Makhachkala and Spartak Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala
GoalsAssists
- G. Agalarov50
Spartak Moscow
GoalsAssists
- M. Ugalde60
- M. Daku51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 0% chance of the title and Spartak Moscow 20.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Dinamo Makhachkala v Spartak Moscow has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 21% / 24% / 55% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 22% / 25% / 53%: the biggest move is Spartak Moscow's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Dinamo Makhachkala win22%▲ +1
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Spartak Moscow win53%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Moscow the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.88 for Spartak Moscow. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.45 for Spartak Moscow.
How the model reaches 53% for Spartak Moscow to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Spartak Moscow to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Dinamo Makhachkala's ratings add 10 points and Spartak Moscow's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Dinamo Makhachkala's ratings41%+10
- Spartak Moscow's ratings53%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dinamo Makhachkala at home · Spartak Moscow away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Dinamo Makhachkala 14, Spartak Moscow 14.
Dinamo Makhachkala score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Spartak Moscow have let in 1 there.
Spartak Moscow score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Dinamo Makhachkala have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Makhachkala
- at Lokomotiv29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Krylia Sovetov4 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs FC Orenburg27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Fakel6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Akron13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Spartak Moscow
- at Fakel30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 58%
- vs Dynamo6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at FC Krasnodar27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Akron6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 52%
- vs Akhmat13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 58%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.