SCR Altach
vs
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SCR Altach 0–1 Sturm Graz
The model makes it 23% SCR Altach, 27% draw, 50% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: SCR Altach 0.94, Sturm Graz 1.63.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Sturm Graz are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. SCR Altach's rating is built from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Sturm Graz's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.
Key facts
- SCR Altach are 9th on 10 points from 12 games; Sturm Graz are 5th on 19 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
- SCR Altach have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to TSV Hartberg.
- Sturm Graz are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Red Bull Salzburg.
- Last 6 meetings: Sturm Graz 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Sturm Graz 1–0 SCR Altach.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz
Has the model earned this number?
Sturm Graz at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
Bundesliga
- L0-3away to TSV Hartberg8 November 2026
- D1-1Ried31 October 2026
- W2-1Austria Vienna23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg18 October 2026
- W3-0Wolfsberger AC11 October 2026
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga
- L3-4Red Bull Salzburg8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 November 2026
- D2-2Ried25 October 2026
- W6-1Grazer AK18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026
What these results say
- SCR Altach conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SCR Altach had three goals or more.
- Sturm Graz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sturm Graz.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SCR Altach | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 10 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SCR Altach
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 42% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz
- 15 August 2026Sturm Graz 1–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 8 March 2026Sturm Graz 2–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 1 February 2026SCR Altach 3–1 Sturm GrazCup
- 5 October 2025SCR Altach 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 30 November 2024SCR Altach 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 24 August 2024Sturm Graz 2–1 SCR AltachBundesliga
Leading scorers: SCR Altach and Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on SCR Altach v Sturm Graz has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 23% / 29% / 48% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 23% / 27% / 50%: the biggest move is Sturm Graz's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- SCR Altach win23%=
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Sturm Graz win50%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for SCR Altach against 1.63 for Sturm Graz. SCR Altach's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.23 for Sturm Graz.
How the model reaches 50% for Sturm Graz to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sturm Graz to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, SCR Altach's ratings add 9 points and Sturm Graz's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- SCR Altach's ratings39%+9
- Sturm Graz's ratings50%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
SCR Altach at home · Sturm Graz away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SCR AltachSturm Graz
SCR Altach are 9th after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Sturm Graz are 5th after 12 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SCR Altach 12, Sturm Graz 12.
SCR Altach score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Sturm Graz have let in 2 there.
Sturm Graz score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); SCR Altach have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SCR Altach
- at Grazer AK27 Nov · Bundesligawin 33%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg4 Dec · Bundesligawin 16%
- at WSG Wattens12 Dec · Bundesligawin 28%
- at Ried23 Jan · Bundesligawin 24%
- vs Austria Lustenau30 Jan · Bundesligawin 47%
Sturm Graz
- at 1899 Hoffenheim26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
- vs WSG Wattens29 Nov · Bundesligawin 61%
- vs Austria Vienna6 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
- at AZ Alkmaar10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 20%
- at Grazer AK13 Dec · Bundesligawin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.