Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Rubin vs Zenit Premier League prediction

Ak Bars Arena, Kazan

Our model says: Rubin 0–1 Zenit

The model makes it 24% Rubin, 27% draw, 49% Zenit — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Rubin 0.95, Zenit 1.60.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

One-sided: Zenit are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Rubin's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and Zenit's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.

Key facts

  • Rubin are 8th on 18 points from 14 games; Zenit are top on 31 points from 14 games — Premier League.
  • Rubin have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Lokomotiv.
  • Zenit are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FC Rostov.
  • Last 6 meetings: Zenit 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 November 2025, ended Zenit 1–0 Rubin.

More Russian Premier League predictions

All Russian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rubin vs Zenit

49%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rubin win Draw Zenit win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 0–210%
  4. 1–29%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Rubin first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Zenit at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Rubin vs Zenit

Rubin

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Lokomotiv6 November 2026
  • W1-0Fakel31 October 2026
  • L0-2Krylia Sovetov24 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Spartak Moscow18 October 2026
  • L0-1Dynamo11 October 2026

Zenit

Premier League

  • D2-2FC Rostov8 November 2026
  • W3-0away to Krylia Sovetov2 November 2026
  • W2-0Dinamo Makhachkala25 October 2026
  • W3-2Akhmat18 October 2026
  • W3-2away to FC Krasnodar10 October 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Rubin had two goals or fewer.
  • Zenit went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Zenit scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Zenit won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Rubin144641418-418
1Zenit1410133215+1731

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Rubin

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 17% today

Win 10%
Draw 15%
Defeat 20%

Zenit

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 43% today

Win 48%
Draw 39%
Defeat 33%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Rubin vs Zenit

  • 30 November 2025Zenit 1–0 RubinPremier League
  • 30 September 2025Rubin 0–1 ZenitCup
  • 12 August 2025Zenit 3–0 RubinCup
  • 27 July 2025Rubin 2–2 ZenitPremier League
  • 30 March 2025Zenit 4–0 RubinPremier League
  • 17 September 2024Zenit 2–0 RubinCup

Leading scorers: Rubin and Zenit

Rubin

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Zenit

GoalsAssists

  • M. Glushenkov105
  • A. Sobolev102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rubin a 0% chance of the title and Zenit 42.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Rubin v Zenit has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 22% / 28% / 50% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 24% / 27% / 49%: the biggest move is Rubin's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Rubin win24%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Zenit win49%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Rubin Zenit
0.43 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.8
1.62 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.43
0.95 Model expected goals (this match) 1.60

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Zenit the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Rubin against 1.60 for Zenit. Rubin's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.43 for Zenit.

Rubin carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.56 for Zenit.

How the model reaches 49% for Zenit to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Zenit to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Rubin's ratings add 8 points and Zenit's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 49%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Both sides at this match's level30%−1
  4. Rubin's ratings38%+8
  5. Zenit's ratings49%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

RubinZenit
14Matches14
4W 6D 4LRecord10W 1D 3L
14 1.0 per gameGoals scored32 2.3 per game
18 1.3 per gameGoals conceded15 1.1 per game
2 of 14Clean sheets6 of 14
3 of 14Failed to score1 of 14
2 of 2Penalties scored5 of 7
27 1.9 per gameYellow cards29 2.1 per game
2Red cards2
5-4-1 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 13×

Rubin at home · Zenit away

7Played7
2W 2D 3LRecord6W 0D 1L
7–9Goals for – against18–6
1 of 7Clean sheets4 of 7

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Rubin 14, Zenit 14.

Rubin scored 331233
Zenit conceded 032324
Zenit scored 554667
Rubin conceded 132425

Zenit score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Rubin have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Rubin

  • vs Akron28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 44%
  • at FC Krasnodar6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
  • at Dynamo27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 18%
  • at Akhmat6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 29%
  • vs FC Rostov13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 36%

Zenit

  • at CSKA Moscow28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
  • vs Baltika5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
  • vs Fakel27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 74%
  • vs FC Orenburg6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 59%
  • at Rodina Moskva13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 61%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.