AC Milan
vs
Frosinone
Serie A prediction
Our model says: AC Milan 2–1 Frosinone
The model makes it 46% AC Milan, 25% draw, 29% Frosinone — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AC Milan 1.92, Frosinone 1.42.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. AC Milan's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Frosinone's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- AC Milan are 4th on 24 points from 11 games; Frosinone are 6th on 20 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- AC Milan have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Genoa.
- Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Cagliari.
- Last 6 meetings: AC Milan 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 February 2024, ended Frosinone 2–3 AC Milan.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AC Milan vs Frosinone
Has the model earned this number?
AC Milan at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AC Milan vs Frosinone
AC Milan
Serie A
- W2-1away to Genoa8 November 2026
- W3-1Inter31 October 2026
- L2-4Bologna28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Udinese25 October 2026
- W3-2Atalanta18 October 2026
Frosinone
Serie A
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 November 2026
- W2-0Torino1 November 2026
- W5-1Lecce29 October 2026
- D4-4away to Atalanta25 October 2026
- W4-2Sassuolo16 October 2026
What these results say
- AC Milan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AC Milan won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AC Milan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Frosinone conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 24 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AC Milan
Chance to finish in the top four · 49% today
Frosinone
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Frosinone
- 3 February 2024Frosinone 2–3 AC MilanSerie A
- 2 December 2023AC Milan 3–1 FrosinoneSerie A
- 19 May 2019AC Milan 2–0 FrosinoneSerie A
- 26 December 2018Frosinone 0–0 AC MilanSerie A
- 1 May 2016AC Milan 3–3 FrosinoneSerie A
- 20 December 2015Frosinone 2–4 AC MilanSerie A
Leading scorers: AC Milan and Frosinone
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Rabiot54
- A. Cissè50
- Diego Moreira43
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo80
- G. Calò51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AC Milan a 4.4% chance of the title and Frosinone 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for AC Milan against 1.42 for Frosinone. AC Milan's attack/defence rating is 1.32/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.4/1.03 for Frosinone.
How the model reaches 46% for AC Milan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AC Milan to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, AC Milan's ratings add 2 points and Frosinone's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level40%+2
- AC Milan's ratings42%+2
- Frosinone's ratings46%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AC Milan at home · Frosinone away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AC MilanFrosinone
AC Milan are 4th after 11 Serie A matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Frosinone are 6th after 11 (between 4th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: AC Milan 11, Frosinone 11.
AC Milan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Frosinone have let in 2 there.
Frosinone score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); AC Milan have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AC Milan
- at Olympiakos Piraeus26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 32%
- at Cagliari29 Nov · Serie Awin 50%
- vs Parma6 Dec · Serie Awin 57%
- vs Sunderland10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 63%
- at Napoli13 Dec · Serie Awin 33%
Frosinone
- vs Parma29 Nov · Serie Awin 55%
- vs Inter6 Dec · Serie Awin 24%
- at Udinese13 Dec · Serie Awin 52%
- vs Lazio20 Dec · Serie Awin 35%
- at AS Roma3 Jan · Serie Awin 20%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.