Liverpool
vs
Manchester United
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Liverpool 2–1 Manchester United
The model makes it 51% Liverpool, 23% draw, 26% Manchester United — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Liverpool 2.18, Manchester United 1.43.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Liverpool: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Liverpool's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Manchester United's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Liverpool are 4th on 18 points from 10 games; Manchester United are 18th on 8 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Crystal Palace.
- Manchester United have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 4-4 draw at home to Aston Villa.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Manchester United 3–2 Liverpool.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Liverpool vs Manchester United
Has the model earned this number?
Liverpool at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Liverpool vs Manchester United
Liverpool
Premier League
- W3-1away to Crystal Palace8 November 2026
- L0-1Arsenal1 November 2026
- W2-0Brighton25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Brentford17 October 2026
- L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026
Manchester United
Premier League
- D4-4Aston Villa8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Chelsea31 October 2026
- L0-3Bournemouth25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Leeds18 October 2026
- D1-1Tottenham10 October 2026
What these results say
- Liverpool conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Liverpool
Chance to finish in the top four · 63% today
Manchester United
Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Manchester United
- 3 May 2026Manchester United 3–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 19 October 2025Liverpool 1–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 5 January 2025Liverpool 2–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 1 September 2024Manchester United 0–3 LiverpoolPremier League
- 3 August 2024Manchester United 0–3 LiverpoolFriendlies Clubs
- 7 April 2024Manchester United 2–2 LiverpoolPremier League
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Manchester United
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak70
Manchester United
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Fernandes42
- B. Mbeumo40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Liverpool a 4.4% chance of the title and Manchester United 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Liverpool v Manchester United has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 48% / 25% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 51% / 23% / 26%: the biggest move is Liverpool's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Liverpool win51%▲ +3
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Manchester United win26%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Liverpool against 1.43 for Manchester United. Liverpool's attack/defence rating is 1.34/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/1.02 for Manchester United.
How the model reaches 51% for Liverpool to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Liverpool to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Liverpool's ratings add 4 points and Manchester United's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level42%+1
- Liverpool's ratings46%+4
- Manchester United's ratings51%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Liverpool at home · Manchester United away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LiverpoolManchester United
Liverpool are 4th after 10 Premier League matches (between 4th and 10th so far); Manchester United are 18th after 10 (between 10th and 19th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Liverpool 10, Manchester United 10.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Manchester United have let in 6 there.
Manchester United score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Liverpool have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Liverpool
- at Club Brugge KV25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- at Everton29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- vs Sunderland2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 61%
- at Chelsea5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs FC Porto9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 35%
Manchester United
- at Sporting CP25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 25%
- vs Brentford28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- at Newcastle2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs Coventry5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- vs RB Leipzig8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.