FC Orenburg
vs
Baltika
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Orenburg 1–0 Baltika
The model makes it 35% FC Orenburg, 33% draw, 32% Baltika — fair odds of 2.86, 3.03 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Orenburg 1.00, Baltika 0.95.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: FC Orenburg and Baltika are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FC Orenburg's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and Baltika's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- FC Orenburg are 10th on 17 points from 14 games; Baltika are 9th on 17 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- FC Orenburg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Krylia Sovetov.
- Baltika have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dinamo Makhachkala.
- Last 6 meetings: Baltika 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 November 2025, ended FC Orenburg 0–0 Baltika.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Orenburg vs Baltika
Has the model earned this number?
FC Orenburg at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Orenburg vs Baltika
FC Orenburg
Premier League
- L0-2away to Krylia Sovetov8 November 2026
- D0-0CSKA Moscow1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Akhmat23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rodina Moskva19 October 2026
- W4-0Dinamo Makhachkala10 October 2026
Baltika
Premier League
- L0-1Dinamo Makhachkala8 November 2026
- W2-1Akron1 November 2026
- D1-1away to FC Krasnodar24 October 2026
- D0-0FC Rostov18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026
What these results say
- Baltika failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Baltika had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Orenburg | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Baltika | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Orenburg
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 10% today
Baltika
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 8% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs Baltika
- 22 November 2025FC Orenburg 0–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 3 August 2025Baltika 3–2 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 10 March 2024Orenburg 1–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 7 October 2023Baltika 1–0 OrenburgPremier League
- 6 November 2021Orenburg 2–1 BaltikaFirst League
- 24 July 2021Baltika 1–1 OrenburgFirst League
Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and Baltika
FC Orenburg
GoalsAssists
- J. Thompson42
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Baltika (ninth, with FC Orenburg tenth), while our numbers lean to FC Orenburg. FC Orenburg rate 0.44 in attack and 1.57 in defence, Baltika 0.49 and 1.48 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Orenburg the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for FC Orenburg against 0.95 for Baltika. FC Orenburg's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.48 for Baltika.
How the model reaches 35% for FC Orenburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Orenburg to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, FC Orenburg's ratings take away 3 points and Baltika's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level39%−3
- FC Orenburg's ratings36%−3
- Baltika's ratings35%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Orenburg at home · Baltika away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Orenburg 14, Baltika 14.
FC Orenburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Baltika have let in 0 there.
Baltika score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FC Orenburg have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Orenburg
- vs Rodina Moskva29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Akron5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Zenit6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Krylia Sovetov13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 41%
Baltika
- vs Akhmat28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at Zenit5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs Rodina Moskva27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- at FC Rostov6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs FC Krasnodar13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.