Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar Premier League prediction

VTB Arena, Moscow

Our model says: Dynamo 2–1 FC Krasnodar

The model makes it 47% Dynamo, 25% draw, 28% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Dynamo 1.93, FC Krasnodar 1.37.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Dynamo's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and FC Krasnodar's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.

Key facts

  • Dynamo are 2nd on 31 points from 14 games; FC Krasnodar are 4th on 26 points from 14 games — Premier League.
  • Dynamo have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Fakel.
  • FC Krasnodar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to CSKA Moscow.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 October 2026, ended FC Krasnodar 2–1 Dynamo.

More Russian Premier League predictions

All Russian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar

64%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Dynamo win Draw FC Krasnodar win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 2–07%
  4. 1–27%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Dynamo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Dynamo at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar

Dynamo

Premier League

  • W2-1away to Fakel7 November 2026
  • W2-0Akhmat31 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Akron24 October 2026
  • W3-1CSKA Moscow18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Rubin11 October 2026

FC Krasnodar

Premier League

  • W4-2CSKA Moscow7 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Rodina Moskva31 October 2026
  • D1-1Baltika24 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Lokomotiv17 October 2026
  • L2-3Zenit10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Dynamo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dynamo won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Krasnodar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Krasnodar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Krasnodar.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Dynamo1410132313+1031
4FC Krasnodar147522518+726

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Dynamo

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 29% today

Win 34%
Draw 25%
Defeat 20%

FC Krasnodar

Chance to finish in the top four · 60% today

Win 71%
Draw 61%
Defeat 55%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar

  • 27 October 2026FC Krasnodar 2–1 DynamoCup
  • 19 August 2026Dynamo 0–1 FC KrasnodarCup
  • 11 May 2026Dynamo 2–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 7 May 2026FC Krasnodar 0–0 DynamoCup
  • 8 April 2026Dynamo 0–0 FC KrasnodarCup
  • 10 February 2026Dynamo 1–0 FC KrasnodarFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Dynamo and FC Krasnodar

Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tyukavin71
  • V. Okishor32

FC Krasnodar

GoalsAssists

  • J. Córdoba61
  • Batxi53
  • Christian34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dynamo a 28.7% chance of the title and FC Krasnodar 4.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Dynamo FC Krasnodar
0.72 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.73
1.52 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.74
1.93 Model expected goals (this match) 1.37

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dynamo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Dynamo against 1.37 for FC Krasnodar. Dynamo's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.74 for FC Krasnodar.

Dynamo carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.42 for FC Krasnodar. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 47% for Dynamo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dynamo to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Dynamo's ratings add 1 point and FC Krasnodar's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level44%+2
  4. Dynamo's ratings45%+1
  5. FC Krasnodar's ratings47%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

DynamoFC Krasnodar
14Matches14
10W 1D 3LRecord7W 5D 2L
23 1.6 per gameGoals scored25 1.8 per game
13 0.9 per gameGoals conceded18 1.3 per game
6 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14
2 of 14Failed to score1 of 14
2 of 3Penalties scored–
21 1.5 per gameYellow cards37 2.6 per game
3Red cards1
4-3-3 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Dynamo at home · FC Krasnodar away

7Played7
6W 1D 0LRecord3W 3D 1L
14–4Goals for – against12–9
3 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Dynamo 14, FC Krasnodar 14.

Dynamo scored 2143110
FC Krasnodar conceded 313224

Dynamo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); FC Krasnodar have let in 4 there.

FC Krasnodar scored 553337
Dynamo conceded 143122

FC Krasnodar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Dynamo have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Dynamo

  • at Krylia Sovetov29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
  • at Spartak Moscow6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
  • vs Rubin27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 56%
  • at Rodina Moskva6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 55%
  • vs Lokomotiv13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 58%

FC Krasnodar

  • at FC Rostov29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
  • vs Rubin6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 54%
  • vs Spartak Moscow27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 39%
  • vs Krylia Sovetov6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 56%
  • at Baltika13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 36%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.