Akron
vs
Fakel
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Akron 1–0 Fakel
The model makes it 51% Akron, 26% draw, 23% Fakel — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Akron 1.75, Fakel 0.99.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Akron: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Akron's rating is built from 46 Russian Premier League matches and Fakel's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- Akron are 14th on 12 points from 14 games; Fakel are bottom on 6 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- Akron have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Spartak Moscow.
- Fakel are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Dynamo.
- Last 6 meetings: Akron 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Akron 1–1 Fakel.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Akron vs Fakel
Has the model earned this number?
Akron at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Akron vs Fakel
Akron
Premier League
- L1-2away to Spartak Moscow8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Baltika1 November 2026
- W3-1Dynamo24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Rostov9 October 2026
Fakel
Premier League
- L1-2Dynamo7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Rubin31 October 2026
- L0-1Rodina Moskva24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Krylia Sovetov17 October 2026
- L0-5Lokomotiv10 October 2026
What these results say
- Akron conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Akron failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fakel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fakel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Akron | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 | Fakel | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Akron
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 54% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Akron vs Fakel
- 11 July 2026Akron 1–1 FakelFriendlies Clubs
- 13 April 2025Akron 1–0 FakelPremier League
- 18 September 2024Akron 2–0 FakelCup
- 15 August 2024Fakel 1–2 AkronCup
- 27 July 2024Fakel 0–2 AkronPremier League
- 17 November 2021Akron 2–0 Fakel VoronezhFirst League
Leading scorers: Akron and Fakel
Akron
GoalsAssists
- Gilson Benchimol42
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Akron the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Akron against 0.99 for Fakel. Akron's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.15 for Fakel.
How the model reaches 51% for Akron to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Akron to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Akron's ratings add 6 points and Fakel's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Akron's ratings48%+6
- Fakel's ratings51%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Akron at home · Fakel away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Akron 14, Fakel 14.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Akron
- at Rubin28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs FC Orenburg5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Akhmat27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Spartak Moscow6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Dinamo Makhachkala13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 45%
Fakel
- vs Spartak Moscow30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs FC Rostov6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at Zenit27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 9%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs CSKA Moscow13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.