FC Rostov
vs
Krylia Sovetov
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Rostov 1–0 Krylia Sovetov
The model makes it 44% FC Rostov, 28% draw, 28% Krylia Sovetov — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Rostov 1.55, Krylia Sovetov 1.13.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. FC Rostov's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and Krylia Sovetov's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- FC Rostov are 6th on 19 points from 14 games; Krylia Sovetov are 7th on 18 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- FC Rostov are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Zenit.
- Krylia Sovetov have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to FC Orenburg.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 November 2025, ended Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FC Rostov.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov
Has the model earned this number?
FC Rostov at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Premier League
- D2-2away to Zenit8 November 2026
- W3-0away to Dinamo Makhachkala1 November 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Baltika18 October 2026
- W1-0Akron9 October 2026
Krylia Sovetov
Premier League
- W2-0FC Orenburg8 November 2026
- L0-3Zenit2 November 2026
- W2-0away to Rubin24 October 2026
- L1-2Fakel17 October 2026
- D1-1Spartak Moscow10 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Rostov went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Rostov | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Rostov
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 4% today
Krylia Sovetov
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 16% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov
- 23 November 2025Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FC RostovPremier League
- 2 August 2025FC Rostov 1–4 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 7 December 2024FC Rostov 3–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 26 July 2024Krylia Sovetov 1–3 FC RostovPremier League
- 1 March 2024FC Rostov 2–0 Krylya SovetovPremier League
- 5 August 2023Krylya Sovetov 5–1 FC RostovPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Krylia Sovetov
GoalsAssists
- A. Rahmanović50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Rostov the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Rostov against 1.13 for Krylia Sovetov. FC Rostov's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.98 for Krylia Sovetov.
How the model reaches 44% for FC Rostov to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Rostov to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, FC Rostov's ratings change nothing and Krylia Sovetov's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- FC Rostov's ratings42%±0
- Krylia Sovetov's ratings44%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Rostov at home · Krylia Sovetov away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Rostov 14, Krylia Sovetov 14.
Krylia Sovetov score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); FC Rostov have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Rostov
- vs FC Krasnodar29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- at Fakel6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at CSKA Moscow27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Baltika6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Rubin13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 33%
Krylia Sovetov
- vs Dynamo29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala4 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Lokomotiv27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- at FC Krasnodar6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at FC Orenburg13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.