Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 16:45 UTC

CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat Premier League prediction

VEB Arena, Moscow

Our model says: CSKA Moscow 1–0 Akhmat

The model makes it 51% CSKA Moscow, 26% draw, 23% Akhmat — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.76, Akhmat 1.02.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to CSKA Moscow: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. CSKA Moscow's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and Akhmat's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.

Key facts

  • CSKA Moscow are 5th on 26 points from 14 games; Akhmat are 12th on 14 points from 14 games — Premier League.
  • CSKA Moscow have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to FC Krasnodar.
  • Akhmat have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rodina Moskva.
  • Last 6 meetings: CSKA Moscow 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Akhmat 1–0 CSKA Moscow.

More Russian Premier League predictions

All Russian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat

53%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

CSKA Moscow win Draw Akhmat win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read CSKA Moscow first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

CSKA Moscow at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat

CSKA Moscow

Premier League

  • L2-4away to FC Krasnodar7 November 2026
  • D0-0away to FC Orenburg1 November 2026
  • W2-0Spartak Moscow25 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Dynamo18 October 2026
  • W3-0Rodina Moskva11 October 2026

Akhmat

Premier League

  • W1-0Rodina Moskva7 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Dynamo31 October 2026
  • L0-1FC Orenburg23 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Zenit18 October 2026
  • D0-0Baltika11 October 2026

What these results say

  • CSKA Moscow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Akhmat failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Akhmat had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5CSKA Moscow147522316+726
12Akhmat143561619-314

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

CSKA Moscow

Chance to finish in the top four · 48% today

Win 54%
Draw 44%
Defeat 37%

Akhmat

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 33% today

Win 20%
Draw 32%
Defeat 37%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat

  • 1 March 2026Akhmat 1–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
  • 27 July 2025CSKA Moscow 2–1 AkhmatPremier League
  • 4 May 2025Akhmat 1–1 CSKA MoscowPremier League
  • 22 October 2024CSKA Moscow 1–0 AkhmatCup
  • 28 September 2024CSKA Moscow 3–0 AkhmatPremier League
  • 27 August 2024Akhmat 0–2 CSKA MoscowCup

Leading scorers: CSKA Moscow and Akhmat

CSKA Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • I. Oblyakov71
  • I. Oleynikov34
  • K. Glebov31

Akhmat

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sadulaev33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA Moscow a 3.1% chance of the title and Akhmat 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on CSKA Moscow v Akhmat has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is CSKA Moscow's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. CSKA Moscow win51%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Akhmat win23%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

CSKA Moscow Akhmat
0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.69 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.81
1.76 Model expected goals (this match) 1.02

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CSKA Moscow the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for CSKA Moscow against 1.02 for Akhmat. CSKA Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.81 for Akhmat.

CSKA Moscow carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.2 for Akhmat.

How the model reaches 51% for CSKA Moscow to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CSKA Moscow to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, CSKA Moscow's ratings add 5 points and Akhmat's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 51%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. CSKA Moscow's ratings47%+5
  4. Akhmat's ratings51%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CSKA MoscowAkhmat
14Matches14
7W 5D 2LRecord3W 5D 6L
23 1.6 per gameGoals scored16 1.1 per game
16 1.1 per gameGoals conceded19 1.4 per game
5 of 14Clean sheets3 of 14
2 of 14Failed to score6 of 14
4 of 4Penalties scored1 of 1
29 2.1 per gameYellow cards31 2.2 per game
1Red cards2
5-3-2 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

CSKA Moscow at home · Akhmat away

8Played7
5W 3D 0LRecord0W 3D 4L
13–5Goals for – against4–10
4 of 8Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: CSKA Moscow 14, Akhmat 14.

CSKA Moscow scored 336134
Akhmat conceded 415144

CSKA Moscow score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Akhmat have let in 5 there.

Akhmat scored 213514
CSKA Moscow conceded 243144

Akhmat score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); CSKA Moscow have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

CSKA Moscow

  • vs Zenit28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
  • at Rodina Moskva5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 48%
  • vs FC Rostov27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 46%
  • at Lokomotiv6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 38%
  • at Fakel13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 50%

Akhmat

  • at Baltika28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
  • vs Lokomotiv5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
  • vs Akron27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 46%
  • vs Rubin6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 40%
  • at Spartak Moscow13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 18%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.