Daejeon Citizen
vs
Beijing Guoan
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Beijing Guoan
The model makes it 56% Daejeon Citizen, 23% draw, 21% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Daejeon Citizen 2.25, Beijing Guoan 1.20.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Daejeon Citizen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Daejeon Citizen's rating is built from 73 K League 1 matches and Beijing Guoan's from 60 Chinese Super League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.
Key facts
- Daejeon Citizen are 10th on 4 points from 4 games; Beijing Guoan are 9th on 7 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Daejeon Citizen are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Kashiwa Reysol.
- Beijing Guoan have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 4-7 defeat away to Port FC.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Daejeon Citizen vs Beijing Guoan
Has the model earned this number?
Daejeon Citizen at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Daejeon Citizen vs Beijing Guoan
Daejeon Citizen
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-2away to Kashiwa Reysol3 November 2026
- L0-1Vissel Kobe27 October 2026
- D1-1away to SHANGHAI SIPG13 October 2026
- W1-0Kyoto Sanga15 September 2026
Beijing Guoan
AFC Champions League Elite
- L4-7away to Port FC3 November 2026
- D2-2Jeonbuk Motors27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Buriram United13 October 2026
- W3-1Pohang Steelers15 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Daejeon Citizen had two goals or fewer.
- Daejeon Citizen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Beijing Guoan scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Beijing Guoan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Beijing Guoan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Daejeon Citizen | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Beijing Guoan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Daejeon Citizen the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen against 1.20 for Beijing Guoan. Daejeon Citizen's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.43 for Beijing Guoan.
How the model reaches 56% for Daejeon Citizen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Daejeon Citizen to win. Then home advantage adds 10 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Daejeon Citizen's ratings add 5 points and Beijing Guoan's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage47%+10
- Both sides at this match's level48%+1
- Daejeon Citizen's ratings53%+5
- Beijing Guoan's ratings56%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Daejeon Citizen at home · Beijing Guoan away
League matches only, this season — Daejeon Citizen in the K League 1, Beijing Guoan in the Super League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Daejeon Citizen 35 in the K League 1, Beijing Guoan 30 in the Super League.
Daejeon Citizen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (18 goals); Beijing Guoan have let in 12 there.
Beijing Guoan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Daejeon Citizen have let in 12 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Daejeon Citizen
- at FC Seoul28 Nov · K League 1win 32%
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- vs Ulsan Hyundai FC6 Dec · K League 1win 47%
- vs Kashima9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Beijing Guoan
- vs Ratchaburi1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
- at Công An Nhân Dân9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 45%
- vs Newcastle Jets16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 59%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.