Pisa
vs
Modena
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Pisa 2–1 Modena
The model makes it 38% Pisa, 26% draw, 36% Modena — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pisa 1.56, Modena 1.49.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Pisa and Modena are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Pisa's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Modena's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Pisa are 8th on 16 points from 11 games; Modena are 2nd on 23 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Pisa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Sudtirol.
- Modena are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Virtus Entella.
- Last 6 meetings: Modena 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 April 2025, ended Pisa 1–2 Modena.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pisa vs Modena
Has the model earned this number?
Pisa at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pisa vs Modena
Pisa
Serie B
- D2-2Sudtirol7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Avellino1 November 2026
- D3-3Palermo28 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hellas Verona25 October 2026
- W3-1Cremonese17 October 2026
Modena
Serie B
- W2-0away to Virtus Entella8 November 2026
- D1-1Mantova31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Vicenza Virtus27 October 2026
- W3-0Cesena24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Carrarese17 October 2026
What these results say
- Pisa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pisa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pisa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Modena scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pisa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
| 2 | Modena | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pisa
Chance to finish in the top two · 7% today
Modena
Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Pisa vs Modena
- 5 April 2025Pisa 1–2 ModenaSerie B
- 21 December 2024Modena 1–0 PisaSerie B
- 28 February 2024Pisa 2–2 ModenaSerie B
- 2 September 2023Modena 2–0 PisaSerie B
- 11 March 2023Modena 1–0 PisaSerie B
- 23 October 2022Pisa 4–2 ModenaSerie B
Leading scorers: Pisa and Modena
Pisa
GoalsAssists
- F. Pittarello41
- M. Tramoni35
- T. Marras31
Modena
GoalsAssists
- A. Belotti70
- G. Ambrosino33
- G. Caso32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Modena (second, with Pisa eighth), while our numbers lean to Pisa. Pisa rate 0.92 in attack and 1.56 in defence, Modena 0.82 and 1.14 (lower is better in defence), so Pisa have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 7-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pisa a 1.6% chance of the title and Modena 13.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pisa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Pisa against 1.49 for Modena. Pisa's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.14 for Modena.
How the model reaches 38% for Pisa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pisa to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Pisa's ratings take away 2 points and Modena's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+2
- Pisa's ratings42%−2
- Modena's ratings38%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Pisa at home · Modena away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PisaModena
Pisa are 8th after 11 Serie B matches (between 3rd and 18th so far); Modena are 2nd after 11 (between 1st and 5th). Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Pisa 11, Modena 11.
Modena score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Pisa have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Pisa
- at Arezzo28 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
- vs Sampdoria5 Dec · Serie Bwin 55%
- at Carrarese8 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Ascoli12 Dec · Serie Bwin 33%
Modena
- vs Padova28 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
- vs Arezzo5 Dec · Serie Bwin 63%
- at Sampdoria8 Dec · Serie Bwin 44%
- vs Catanzaro12 Dec · Serie Bwin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.