Masr
vs
Abu Qair Semad
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Masr 1–0 Abu Qair Semad
The model makes it 48% Masr, 30% draw, 22% Abu Qair Semad — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Masr 1.40, Abu Qair Semad 0.77.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Masr: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Masr's rating is built from 41 Egyptian Premier League matches and Abu Qair Semad's from 8, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 627 matches.
Key facts
- Masr are 10th on 11 points from 8 games; Abu Qair Semad are 19th on 4 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Masr have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Ceramica Cleopatra.
- Abu Qair Semad have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Ghazl El Mehalla.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Masr vs Abu Qair Semad
Has the model earned this number?
Masr at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Masr vs Abu Qair Semad
Masr
Premier League
- L1-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra31 October 2026
- W3-2Future FC20 October 2026
- D1-1away to El Mokawloon12 October 2026
- W2-1Olympic El Qanah17 September 2026
- L1-2away to Enppi9 September 2026
Abu Qair Semad
Premier League
- L0-1Ghazl El Mehalla31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Masry19 October 2026
- L1-2Asyut Petrol13 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Ahly15 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zamalek SC8 September 2026
What these results say
- Masr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Masr conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Masr.
- Abu Qair Semad did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abu Qair Semad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Abu Qair Semad had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Masr | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Masr
Chance to finish in the top six · 27% today
Abu Qair Semad
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 70% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Masr and Abu Qair Semad
Masr
GoalsAssists
- Ahmed Atef21
Abu Qair Semad
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Masr the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Masr against 0.77 for Abu Qair Semad. Masr's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.91 for Abu Qair Semad.
How the model reaches 48% for Masr to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Masr to win. Then home advantage adds 1 point, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Masr's ratings add 7 points and Abu Qair Semad's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage36%+1
- Both sides at this match's level35%−1
- Masr's ratings42%+7
- Abu Qair Semad's ratings48%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Masr at home · Abu Qair Semad away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Masr 8, Abu Qair Semad 8.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Masr
- at Asyut Petrol10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- vs Petrojet14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Al Ittihad Alexandria24 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Smouha SC28 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Ghazl El Mehalla5 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Abu Qair Semad
- vs Smouha SC10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- at El Gouna FC15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Wadi Degla22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- at El Mokawloon28 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Olympic El Qanah6 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.