Regular Season - 9 · 24 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Smouha SC vs National Bank of Egypt Premier League prediction

Our model says: Smouha SC 0–1 National Bank of Egypt

The model makes it 33% Smouha SC, 33% draw, 34% National Bank of Egypt — fair odds of 3.03, 3.03 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Smouha SC 0.94, National Bank of Egypt 0.94.

Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Smouha SC and National Bank of Egypt are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Smouha SC's rating is built from 34 Egyptian Premier League matches and National Bank of Egypt's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 627 matches.

Key facts

  • Smouha SC are 9th on 11 points from 8 games; National Bank of Egypt are 8th on 11 points from 8 games — Premier League.
  • Smouha SC are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Petrojet.
  • National Bank of Egypt are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al Masry.
  • Last 6 meetings: Smouha SC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended National Bank of Egypt 1–3 Smouha SC.

More Egyptian Premier League predictions

All Egyptian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Smouha SC vs National Bank of Egypt

38%
Both teams to score
29%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Smouha SC win Draw National Bank of Egypt win
  1. 0–016%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–114%
  4. 1–014%
  5. 0–27%
  6. 2–07%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Smouha SC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 23%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

National Bank of Egypt at 34%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Smouha SC vs National Bank of Egypt

Smouha SC

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Petrojet31 October 2026
  • W2-0away to El Gouna FC19 October 2026
  • W1-0Ghazl El Mehalla12 October 2026
  • W1-0away to El Geish14 September 2026
  • L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026

National Bank of Egypt

Premier League

  • D1-1Al Masry28 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Wadi Degla20 October 2026
  • W3-0El Geish13 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra14 September 2026
  • W3-1Ghazl El Mehalla7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Smouha SC had two goals or fewer.
  • Smouha SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • National Bank of Egypt scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • National Bank of Egypt conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Smouha SC832355011
8National Bank of Egypt832399011

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Smouha SC

Chance to finish in the top six · 17% today

Win 27%
Draw 14%
Defeat 8%

National Bank of Egypt

Chance to finish in the top six · 23% today

Win 32%
Draw 20%
Defeat 14%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Smouha SC vs National Bank of Egypt

  • 1 March 2026National Bank of Egypt 1–3 Smouha SCPremier League
  • 16 February 2025Smouha SC 1–4 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
  • 13 July 2024National Bank of Egypt 1–2 Smouha SCPremier League
  • 13 February 2024Smouha SC 1–1 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
  • 19 February 2023National Bank of Egypt 2–2 Smouha SCPremier League
  • 25 October 2022Smouha SC 1–1 National Bank of EgyptPremier League

Leading scorers: Smouha SC and National Bank of Egypt

Smouha SC

GoalsAssists

  • P. Badji21

National Bank of Egypt

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Smouha SC National Bank of Egypt
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.66
1.33 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.7
0.94 Model expected goals (this match) 0.94

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives National Bank of Egypt the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Smouha SC against 0.94 for National Bank of Egypt. Smouha SC's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.7 for National Bank of Egypt.

How the model reaches 34% for National Bank of Egypt to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for National Bank of Egypt to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, Smouha SC's ratings take away 1 point and National Bank of Egypt's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 34%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground34%
  2. Home advantage33%−1
  3. Smouha SC's ratings32%−1
  4. National Bank of Egypt's ratings34%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Smouha SCNational Bank of Egypt
8Matches8
3W 2D 3LRecord3W 2D 3L
5 0.6 per gameGoals scored9 1.1 per game
5 0.6 per gameGoals conceded9 1.1 per game
4 of 8Clean sheets2 of 8
4 of 8Failed to score3 of 8
–Penalties scored1 of 1
17 2.1 per gameYellow cards15 1.9 per game
4-1-4-1 6×Usual shape4-1-4-1 5×

Smouha SC at home · National Bank of Egypt away

3Played4
1W 1D 1LRecord1W 1D 2L
1–2Goals for – against2–4
2 of 3Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Smouha SC 8, National Bank of Egypt 8.

Smouha SC scored 001013
National Bank of Egypt conceded 102322

Smouha SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); National Bank of Egypt have let in 2 there.

National Bank of Egypt scored 111311
Smouha SC conceded 000202

National Bank of Egypt score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Smouha SC have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Smouha SC

  • at Abu Qair Semad10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
  • vs Zamalek SC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
  • vs Pyramids FC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
  • at Masr28 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
  • vs Future FC4 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 35%

National Bank of Egypt

  • vs El Gouna FC8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 42%
  • at Pyramids FC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
  • vs Olympic El Qanah22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 42%
  • at Enppi27 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
  • vs Al Ittihad Alexandria6 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 37%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.