Walsall
vs
Barnet
League Two prediction
Our model says: Walsall 1–2 Barnet
The model makes it 36% Walsall, 26% draw, 38% Barnet — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Walsall 1.57, Barnet 1.62.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
A tight game: Walsall and Barnet are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Walsall's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and Barnet's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Walsall are 6th on 19 points from 12 games; Barnet are 2nd on 25 points from 12 games — League Two.
- Walsall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Salford City.
- Barnet have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to York.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Walsall 1–3 Barnet.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Walsall vs Barnet
Has the model earned this number?
Barnet at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Walsall vs Barnet
Walsall
League Two
- L2-4Salford City26 October 2026
- W3-0Oldham20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Swindon Town17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tranmere26 September 2026
Barnet
League Two
- W3-1York27 October 2026
- D1-1Oldham24 October 2026
- L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Bristol Rovers10 October 2026
What these results say
- Walsall scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Walsall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Walsall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Barnet.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Walsall | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Walsall vs Barnet
- 7 February 2026Walsall 1–3 BarnetLeague Two
- 16 August 2025Barnet 1–2 WalsallLeague Two
Leading scorers: Walsall and Barnet
Walsall
GoalsAssists
- A. Pressley80
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- K. Tshimanga104
- C. Lakin63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Walsall carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.31 for Barnet.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Walsall and 1.62 for Barnet.
Walsall rate 0.51 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barnet rate 0.69 and 2.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Walsall a 4.3% chance of the title and Barnet 40.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Walsall against 1.62 for Barnet. Walsall's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/2.11 for Barnet.
How the model reaches 38% for Barnet to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barnet to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Walsall's ratings add 2 points and Barnet's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Walsall's ratings34%+2
- Barnet's ratings38%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Walsall at home · Barnet away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Walsall 12, Barnet 12.
Walsall score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Barnet have let in 1 there.
Barnet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Walsall have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Walsall
- at York21 Nov · League Twowin 29%
- vs Northampton28 Nov · League Twowin 40%
- at Newport County1 Dec · League Twowin 35%
Barnet
- vs Port Vale21 Nov · League Twowin 56%
- at Crawley Town24 Nov · League Twowin 53%
- at Rochdale28 Nov · League Twowin 52%
- vs Rotherham1 Dec · League Twowin 64%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.