Chelsea
vs
Leeds
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Chelsea 2–1 Leeds
The model makes it 42% Chelsea, 27% draw, 31% Leeds — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chelsea 1.53, Leeds 1.26.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Chelsea's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Leeds's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Chelsea are 5th on 16 points from 10 games; Leeds are 9th on 14 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Chelsea have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Sunderland.
- Leeds have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Tottenham.
- Last 6 meetings: Chelsea 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended Chelsea 6–3 Leeds.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chelsea vs Leeds
Has the model earned this number?
Chelsea at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chelsea vs Leeds
Chelsea
Premier League
- L0-1away to Sunderland8 November 2026
- W2-0Manchester United31 October 2026
- L0-2Tottenham24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Everton17 October 2026
- W5-1Bournemouth10 October 2026
Leeds
Premier League
- W1-0Tottenham7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Bournemouth31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sunderland25 October 2026
- D1-1Manchester United18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal10 October 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chelsea had two goals or fewer.
- Leeds failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leeds had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chelsea
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Leeds
- 9 September 2026Chelsea 6–3 LeedsLeague Cup
- 26 April 2026Chelsea 1–0 LeedsFA Cup
- 10 February 2026Chelsea 2–2 LeedsPremier League
- 3 December 2025Leeds 3–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 28 February 2024Chelsea 3–2 LeedsFA Cup
- 4 March 2023Chelsea 1–0 LeedsPremier League
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Leeds
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers51
- Pedro Neto31
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chelsea a 0.2% chance of the title and Leeds 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Chelsea v Leeds has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Chelsea's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Chelsea win42%▼ −2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Leeds win31%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chelsea the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Chelsea against 1.26 for Leeds. Chelsea's attack/defence rating is 1.23/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.78 for Leeds.
How the model reaches 42% for Chelsea to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Chelsea to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Chelsea's ratings add 2 points and Leeds's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Chelsea's ratings42%+2
- Leeds's ratings42%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Chelsea at home · Leeds away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ChelseaLeeds
Chelsea are 5th after 10 Premier League matches (between 3rd and 7th so far); Leeds are 9th after 10 (between 3rd and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Chelsea 10, Leeds 10.
Chelsea score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Leeds have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chelsea
- at Nottingham Forest27 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Crystal Palace2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- vs Liverpool5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Manchester City12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Aston Villa21 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Leeds
- vs Coventry28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 51%
- at Manchester City2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Ipswich5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Liverpool12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs Fulham19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.