Newcastle Jets
vs
Kashiwa Reysol
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Newcastle Jets 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol
The model makes it 32% Newcastle Jets, 25% draw, 43% Kashiwa Reysol — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Newcastle Jets 1.53, Kashiwa Reysol 1.86.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Kashiwa Reysol: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Newcastle Jets's rating is built from 32 A-League matches and Kashiwa Reysol's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 305 matches.
Key facts
- Newcastle Jets are bottom on 0 points from 4 games; Kashiwa Reysol are 4th on 7 points from 4 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Newcastle Jets have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to SHANGHAI SIPG.
- Kashiwa Reysol are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Daejeon Citizen.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newcastle Jets vs Kashiwa Reysol
Has the model earned this number?
Kashiwa Reysol at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Newcastle Jets vs Kashiwa Reysol
Newcastle Jets
AFC Champions League Elite
- L2-4SHANGHAI SIPG3 November 2026
- L2-5away to Kyoto Sanga27 October 2026
- L1-3Gamba Osaka13 October 2026
- L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026
Kashiwa Reysol
AFC Champions League Elite
- W2-0Daejeon Citizen3 November 2026
- D0-0away to Ratchaburi27 October 2026
- W5-1Port FC14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Jeonbuk Motors16 September 2026
What these results say
- Newcastle Jets did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Newcastle Jets scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Newcastle Jets conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Kashiwa Reysol scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 0 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Newcastle Jets and Kashiwa Reysol
Newcastle Jets
GoalsAssists
- P. Wood40
Kashiwa Reysol
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kashiwa Reysol the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Newcastle Jets against 1.86 for Kashiwa Reysol. Newcastle Jets's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.34 for Kashiwa Reysol.
How the model reaches 43% for Kashiwa Reysol to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Kashiwa Reysol to win. Then home advantage takes away 9 points, Newcastle Jets's ratings add 7 points and Kashiwa Reysol's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage28%−9
- Newcastle Jets's ratings35%+7
- Kashiwa Reysol's ratings43%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Newcastle Jets at home · Kashiwa Reysol away
League matches only, this season — Newcastle Jets in the A-League, Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Newcastle Jets 4 in the A-League, Kashiwa Reysol 20 in the J1 League.
Kashiwa Reysol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Newcastle Jets have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Newcastle Jets
- at Vissel Kobe1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 14%
- at Melbourne Victory12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
- at Adelaide United20 Dec · A-Leaguewin 39%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers26 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
- at Wellington Phoenix2 Jan · A-Leaguewin 31%
Kashiwa Reysol
- vs Công An Nhân Dân1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 70%
- vs Buriram United10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 62%
- at Pohang Steelers16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.